Trader consensus reflects an 82.5% implied probability against any STF justice being removed by impeachment before 2027, anchored by the high constitutional bar requiring two-thirds Senate approval (41 of 81 votes) and no historical precedents of success. Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco dismissed multiple impeachment petitions targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes in late October 2024, citing lack of evidence, derailing opposition initiatives from Bolsonaro-aligned congressmen amid disputes over his rulings on disinformation and January 8 riot probes. Centrão dominance in the Senate, allied with President Lula's base, precludes the necessary supermajority, while no other justices face viable challenges. Absent major scandals or shifts in Senate composition, procedural hurdles sustain the No lead.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$53,954 Объем
$53,954 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$53,954 Объем
$53,954 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 82.5% implied probability against any STF justice being removed by impeachment before 2027, anchored by the high constitutional bar requiring two-thirds Senate approval (41 of 81 votes) and no historical precedents of success. Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco dismissed multiple impeachment petitions targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes in late October 2024, citing lack of evidence, derailing opposition initiatives from Bolsonaro-aligned congressmen amid disputes over his rulings on disinformation and January 8 riot probes. Centrão dominance in the Senate, allied with President Lula's base, precludes the necessary supermajority, while no other justices face viable challenges. Absent major scandals or shifts in Senate composition, procedural hurdles sustain the No lead.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Объем
$53,954Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 82.5% implied probability against any STF justice being removed by impeachment before 2027, anchored by the high constitutional bar requiring two-thirds Senate approval (41 of 81 votes) and no historical precedents of success. Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco dismissed multiple impeachment petitions targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes in late October 2024, citing lack of evidence, derailing opposition initiatives from Bolsonaro-aligned congressmen amid disputes over his rulings on disinformation and January 8 riot probes. Centrão dominance in the Senate, allied with President Lula's base, precludes the necessary supermajority, while no other justices face viable challenges. Absent major scandals or shifts in Senate composition, procedural hurdles sustain the No lead.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$53,954Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 82.5% implied probability against any STF justice being removed by impeachment before 2027, anchored by the high constitutional bar requiring two-thirds Senate approval (41 of 81 votes) and no historical precedents of success. Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco dismissed multiple impeachment petitions targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes in late October 2024, citing lack of evidence, derailing opposition initiatives from Bolsonaro-aligned congressmen amid disputes over his rulings on disinformation and January 8 riot probes. Centrão dominance in the Senate, allied with President Lula's base, precludes the necessary supermajority, while no other justices face viable challenges. Absent major scandals or shifts in Senate composition, procedural hurdles sustain the No lead.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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