**US federal proceedings against ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro center on narcoterrorism, cocaine trafficking, firearms, and recent conspiracy-to-torture charges added in early October.** Maduro and his wife, captured by US forces in January and held in Brooklyn, pleaded not guilty at mid-October arraignments, with trial now set for June 2027 after a two-week delay. Defense motions to dismiss on head-of-state immunity grounds remain pending, including a November hearing, while the recent death of presiding Judge Alvin Hellerstein introduces further procedural uncertainty. These factors—extended timeline, unresolved legal challenges, and absence of a conviction—support the market's leading 52% probability on no prison time, with the 21.5% share on 60+ years reflecting the severe mandatory minimums possible upon full conviction.