**US federal prosecutors are pursuing narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges against former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro following his January 2026 capture by US forces and transfer to New York custody.** A June 2027 trial date has been set, with additional charges expected shortly for alleged torture of detained Americans. Maduro and his wife have pleaded not guilty, raised head-of-state immunity defenses, and face motions scheduled for argument in November 2026. These proceedings, combined with the extended timeline before any verdict and potential diplomatic or policy developments in the Venezuela transition process, underpin trader pricing that assigns the highest implied probability to no prison time while still reflecting a material chance of a lengthy sentence upon conviction.