Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent arraignment on narcoterrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation charges, which carry mandatory minimums of 20 years and potential life sentences. Trader consensus prices 60+ months imprisonment at 33.5% amid expectations of conviction on serious counts, yet no prison time holds 27% due to ongoing pre-trial challenges including the legality of his abduction-like arrest, head-of-state immunity claims, and the narcoterrorism statute's poor trial record with overturned convictions. A March 26 hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein reject dismissal requests but probe sanctions blocking Venezuelan funding for defense, keeping outcomes tight; a trial date or plea developments could tip probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено60+ 34%
Без тюремного срока 27%
20–40 17.1%
40–60 15%
$457,466 Объем
$457,466 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Без тюремного срока
27%
<20
6%
20–40
17%
40–60
15%
60+
34%
60+ 34%
Без тюремного срока 27%
20–40 17.1%
40–60 15%
$457,466 Объем
$457,466 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Без тюремного срока
$359,814 Объем
27%
<20
$28,127 Объем
6%
20–40
$27,371 Объем
17%
40–60
$13,369 Объем
15%
60+
$28,785 Объем
34%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent arraignment on narcoterrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation charges, which carry mandatory minimums of 20 years and potential life sentences. Trader consensus prices 60+ months imprisonment at 33.5% amid expectations of conviction on serious counts, yet no prison time holds 27% due to ongoing pre-trial challenges including the legality of his abduction-like arrest, head-of-state immunity claims, and the narcoterrorism statute's poor trial record with overturned convictions. A March 26 hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein reject dismissal requests but probe sanctions blocking Venezuelan funding for defense, keeping outcomes tight; a trial date or plea developments could tip probabilities.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Объем
$457,466Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent arraignment on narcoterrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation charges, which carry mandatory minimums of 20 years and potential life sentences. Trader consensus prices 60+ months imprisonment at 33.5% amid expectations of conviction on serious counts, yet no prison time holds 27% due to ongoing pre-trial challenges including the legality of his abduction-like arrest, head-of-state immunity claims, and the narcoterrorism statute's poor trial record with overturned convictions. A March 26 hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein reject dismissal requests but probe sanctions blocking Venezuelan funding for defense, keeping outcomes tight; a trial date or plea developments could tip probabilities.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$457,466Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent arraignment on narcoterrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation charges, which carry mandatory minimums of 20 years and potential life sentences. Trader consensus prices 60+ months imprisonment at 33.5% amid expectations of conviction on serious counts, yet no prison time holds 27% due to ongoing pre-trial challenges including the legality of his abduction-like arrest, head-of-state immunity claims, and the narcoterrorism statute's poor trial record with overturned convictions. A March 26 hearing saw Judge Alvin Hellerstein reject dismissal requests but probe sanctions blocking Venezuelan funding for defense, keeping outcomes tight; a trial date or plea developments could tip probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы