Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time amid his protracted #MeToo legal saga, with 20-30 years slightly edging no prison time as traders weigh his confirmed 16-year California rape conviction—currently under appeal following a skeptical April appellate hearing—against the ongoing third New York rape retrial for Jessica Mann, now in its second week of testimony as of early May. The razor-close odds stem from his 2025 partial conviction on a criminal sex act carrying up to 25 years (sentencing pending), balanced by aggressive appeals, deteriorating health at age 74 including cancer, and time served since 2020 potentially enabling release if verdicts falter. Key swing factors include the imminent New York verdict and California appeal ruling, which could extend or nullify his incarceration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоХарви Вайнштейн в тюрьме?
Харви Вайнштейн в тюрьме?
20-30 лет 32.6%
Без тюремного срока 31.6%
10–20 лет 14.8%
Более 30 лет 8.0%
$911,954 Объем
$911,954 Объем
Без тюремного срока
32%
Менее 5 лет
7%
5-10 лет
4%
10–20 лет
15%
20-30 лет
33%
Более 30 лет
8%
20-30 лет 32.6%
Без тюремного срока 31.6%
10–20 лет 14.8%
Более 30 лет 8.0%
$911,954 Объем
$911,954 Объем
Без тюремного срока
32%
Менее 5 лет
7%
5-10 лет
4%
10–20 лет
15%
20-30 лет
33%
Более 30 лет
8%
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin uncertainty in Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time amid his protracted #MeToo legal saga, with 20-30 years slightly edging no prison time as traders weigh his confirmed 16-year California rape conviction—currently under appeal following a skeptical April appellate hearing—against the ongoing third New York rape retrial for Jessica Mann, now in its second week of testimony as of early May. The razor-close odds stem from his 2025 partial conviction on a criminal sex act carrying up to 25 years (sentencing pending), balanced by aggressive appeals, deteriorating health at age 74 including cancer, and time served since 2020 potentially enabling release if verdicts falter. Key swing factors include the imminent New York verdict and California appeal ruling, which could extend or nullify his incarceration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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