The near-certainty of "No" at 99.4% stems from the razor-thin window remaining before 2027 and the complete lack of verifiable signs, official statements, or cultural shifts pointing to an imminent return. Traders weigh centuries of unfulfilled predictions against the absence of fresh eschatological momentum in religious discourse or global events, creating overwhelming consensus backed by real capital. Historical voting patterns in similar long-shot markets reinforce skepticism, as no credible precursors have emerged in recent weeks. A realistic upset would require an unprecedented, widely interpreted worldwide event within the next weeks that aligns with specific theological criteria, though such developments remain highly speculative and outside typical resolution thresholds.