The Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting carries a 98.1% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point hike that would lift the short-term policy rate to 1.00% from 0.75%. This near-consensus stems from Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish pivot, firmer-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth, and persistent inflation pressures fueled by higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions. Traders also cite resilient wage trends and corporate profits as supporting normalization toward the 2% target. A sharper escalation in geopolitical risks or a material deterioration in incoming data before the meeting represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПовышение на 25 б.п. 98.1%
Без изменений 1.7%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п. <1%
Снижение ставок <1%
$424,167 Объем
$424,167 Объем
Снижение ставок
<1%
Без изменений
2%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
98%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 98.1%
Без изменений 1.7%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п. <1%
Снижение ставок <1%
$424,167 Объем
$424,167 Объем
Снижение ставок
<1%
Без изменений
2%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
98%
Повышение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting carries a 98.1% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point hike that would lift the short-term policy rate to 1.00% from 0.75%. This near-consensus stems from Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish pivot, firmer-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth, and persistent inflation pressures fueled by higher energy costs amid Middle East tensions. Traders also cite resilient wage trends and corporate profits as supporting normalization toward the 2% target. A sharper escalation in geopolitical risks or a material deterioration in incoming data before the meeting represent the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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