Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects subdued expectations for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the 0.5-1.0% bin at 48.5% implied probability leading amid recent economic deceleration. Q3 2024 GDP contracted 0.38% quarter-over-quarter per INEGI data—the first decline since 2020—driven by a 2.5% drop in manufacturing activity and softening services amid weaker US demand and fading nearshoring momentum. President Sheinbaum's fiscal consolidation to preserve the investment-grade rating adds headwinds, while President-elect Trump's tariff threats on Mexican exports (40% of GDP) have weighed on sentiment since the November election. Banxico's 100 basis points of rate cuts since August bolster consumption, but consensus 2025 forecasts around 1.2% annual growth point to quarterly figures in these leading ranges; watch Q4 GDP release in February.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено0,5-1,0% 53%
1,0–1,5% 38%
1,5-2,0% 30%
<0,0% 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<0,0%
11%
0,0–0,5%
13%
0,5-1,0%
49%
1,0–1,5%
38%
1,5-2,0%
30%
2,0-2,5%
10%
>2,5%
10%
0,5-1,0% 53%
1,0–1,5% 38%
1,5-2,0% 30%
<0,0% 11%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<0,0%
$0 Объем
11%
0,0–0,5%
$0 Объем
13%
0,5-1,0%
$308 Объем
49%
1,0–1,5%
$0 Объем
38%
1,5-2,0%
$0 Объем
30%
2,0-2,5%
$0 Объем
10%
>2,5%
$0 Объем
10%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects subdued expectations for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the 0.5-1.0% bin at 48.5% implied probability leading amid recent economic deceleration. Q3 2024 GDP contracted 0.38% quarter-over-quarter per INEGI data—the first decline since 2020—driven by a 2.5% drop in manufacturing activity and softening services amid weaker US demand and fading nearshoring momentum. President Sheinbaum's fiscal consolidation to preserve the investment-grade rating adds headwinds, while President-elect Trump's tariff threats on Mexican exports (40% of GDP) have weighed on sentiment since the November election. Banxico's 100 basis points of rate cuts since August bolster consumption, but consensus 2025 forecasts around 1.2% annual growth point to quarterly figures in these leading ranges; watch Q4 GDP release in February.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Объем
$308Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects subdued expectations for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the 0.5-1.0% bin at 48.5% implied probability leading amid recent economic deceleration. Q3 2024 GDP contracted 0.38% quarter-over-quarter per INEGI data—the first decline since 2020—driven by a 2.5% drop in manufacturing activity and softening services amid weaker US demand and fading nearshoring momentum. President Sheinbaum's fiscal consolidation to preserve the investment-grade rating adds headwinds, while President-elect Trump's tariff threats on Mexican exports (40% of GDP) have weighed on sentiment since the November election. Banxico's 100 basis points of rate cuts since August bolster consumption, but consensus 2025 forecasts around 1.2% annual growth point to quarterly figures in these leading ranges; watch Q4 GDP release in February.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$308Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects subdued expectations for Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with the 0.5-1.0% bin at 48.5% implied probability leading amid recent economic deceleration. Q3 2024 GDP contracted 0.38% quarter-over-quarter per INEGI data—the first decline since 2020—driven by a 2.5% drop in manufacturing activity and softening services amid weaker US demand and fading nearshoring momentum. President Sheinbaum's fiscal consolidation to preserve the investment-grade rating adds headwinds, while President-elect Trump's tariff threats on Mexican exports (40% of GDP) have weighed on sentiment since the November election. Banxico's 100 basis points of rate cuts since August bolster consumption, but consensus 2025 forecasts around 1.2% annual growth point to quarterly figures in these leading ranges; watch Q4 GDP release in February.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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