Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution around Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) levels for March, with recent Federal Reserve actions anchoring expectations near current 30-day averages around 4.32% as of late December 2024. The FOMC's December 18 rate cut to a 4.25-4.50% fed funds target—coupled with a dot plot signaling only two more cuts in 2025 amid sticky inflation—has tempered aggressive easing bets, pushing market-implied paths higher than prior forecasts. Key catalysts ahead include January 29-30 FOMC minutes, February CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases, and Treasury issuance dynamics, which could pressure repo liquidity and SOFR if balance sheet runoff accelerates. Volatility in overnight funding remains a swing factor versus the effective federal funds rate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПопадет ли SOFR в __ в марте?
Попадет ли SOFR в __ в марте?
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
↑3,80
21%
↑3,78%
7%
↑3,76%
38%
↑3,74%
36%
↑3,72%
62%
↓3,60%
12%
↓3,58%
1%
$4,104 Объем
↑3,80
$866 Объем
21%
↑3,78%
$0 Объем
7%
↑3,76%
$0 Объем
38%
↑3,74%
$0 Объем
36%
↑3,72%
$0 Объем
62%
↓3,60%
$0 Объем
12%
↓3,58%
$3,238 Объем
1%
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution around Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) levels for March, with recent Federal Reserve actions anchoring expectations near current 30-day averages around 4.32% as of late December 2024. The FOMC's December 18 rate cut to a 4.25-4.50% fed funds target—coupled with a dot plot signaling only two more cuts in 2025 amid sticky inflation—has tempered aggressive easing bets, pushing market-implied paths higher than prior forecasts. Key catalysts ahead include January 29-30 FOMC minutes, February CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases, and Treasury issuance dynamics, which could pressure repo liquidity and SOFR if balance sheet runoff accelerates. Volatility in overnight funding remains a swing factor versus the effective federal funds rate.
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Открытие рынка: Mar 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
Объем
$4,104Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution around Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) levels for March, with recent Federal Reserve actions anchoring expectations near current 30-day averages around 4.32% as of late December 2024. The FOMC's December 18 rate cut to a 4.25-4.50% fed funds target—coupled with a dot plot signaling only two more cuts in 2025 amid sticky inflation—has tempered aggressive easing bets, pushing market-implied paths higher than prior forecasts. Key catalysts ahead include January 29-30 FOMC minutes, February CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases, and Treasury issuance dynamics, which could pressure repo liquidity and SOFR if balance sheet runoff accelerates. Volatility in overnight funding remains a swing factor versus the effective federal funds rate.
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.
Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Объем
$4,104Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution around Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) levels for March, with recent Federal Reserve actions anchoring expectations near current 30-day averages around 4.32% as of late December 2024. The FOMC's December 18 rate cut to a 4.25-4.50% fed funds target—coupled with a dot plot signaling only two more cuts in 2025 amid sticky inflation—has tempered aggressive easing bets, pushing market-implied paths higher than prior forecasts. Key catalysts ahead include January 29-30 FOMC minutes, February CPI and nonfarm payrolls releases, and Treasury issuance dynamics, which could pressure repo liquidity and SOFR if balance sheet runoff accelerates. Volatility in overnight funding remains a swing factor versus the effective federal funds rate.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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