Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.5% implied probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, reflecting a closely contested balance between cooling core inflation and escalating upside risks from the Iran war's energy price shock. February 2026 CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year with core measures near the 2% target, while unemployment rose to 6.7% amid job losses, supporting the Governing Council's decision to hold the overnight rate target at 2.25% on March 18. However, surging oil and gasoline prices are poised to boost headline inflation short-term, prompting the Bank to rely more on judgment and risk management, as detailed in recent deliberations. Key swing factors include the conflict's duration and March CPI data due April 20, ahead of the April 29 policy announcement.