Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada's April 24 policy decision, with rate cuts and hikes trading below 6% combined, reflecting consensus that the current 4.75% policy rate remains appropriately restrictive. This strong positioning stems from March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—slightly above the 2.8% forecast—alongside sticky core measures near 3%, tempering cut expectations despite unemployment ticking up to 6.1% and softening labor conditions. Governor Macklem's recent remarks emphasized data dependence without signaling urgency for adjustment. Realistic challenges include a sharper inflation downside surprise or renewed economic weakness in upcoming GDP and jobs data, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРешение Банка Канады в апреле?
Решение Банка Канады в апреле?
Без изменений 94.8%
Повышение 4.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.3%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$56,408 Объем
$56,408 Объем
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
1%
Без изменений
95%
Повышение
4%
Без изменений 94.8%
Повышение 4.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.3%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$56,408 Объем
$56,408 Объем
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
1%
Без изменений
95%
Повышение
4%
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada's April 24 policy decision, with rate cuts and hikes trading below 6% combined, reflecting consensus that the current 4.75% policy rate remains appropriately restrictive. This strong positioning stems from March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—slightly above the 2.8% forecast—alongside sticky core measures near 3%, tempering cut expectations despite unemployment ticking up to 6.1% and softening labor conditions. Governor Macklem's recent remarks emphasized data dependence without signaling urgency for adjustment. Realistic challenges include a sharper inflation downside surprise or renewed economic weakness in upcoming GDP and jobs data, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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