Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key rates steady at 2.00% deposit facility amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Recent ECB staff projections and the Q2 Survey of Professional Forecasters revised 2026 headline inflation upward to 2.6-2.7%, fueled by energy price spikes from the ongoing Middle East conflict, including U.S.-Israel actions against Iran. Core inflation remains sticky near 2.3%, prompting analysts like Morgan Stanley to scrap prior cut forecasts four days ago, while the IMF anticipates a 50 basis-point hike. Upcoming June policy meeting looms as the next catalyst, with higher-for-longer stance dominating amid geopolitical risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$27,513 Объем
$27,513 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$27,513 Объем
$27,513 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key rates steady at 2.00% deposit facility amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Recent ECB staff projections and the Q2 Survey of Professional Forecasters revised 2026 headline inflation upward to 2.6-2.7%, fueled by energy price spikes from the ongoing Middle East conflict, including U.S.-Israel actions against Iran. Core inflation remains sticky near 2.3%, prompting analysts like Morgan Stanley to scrap prior cut forecasts four days ago, while the IMF anticipates a 50 basis-point hike. Upcoming June policy meeting looms as the next catalyst, with higher-for-longer stance dominating amid geopolitical risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Объем
$27,513Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key rates steady at 2.00% deposit facility amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Recent ECB staff projections and the Q2 Survey of Professional Forecasters revised 2026 headline inflation upward to 2.6-2.7%, fueled by energy price spikes from the ongoing Middle East conflict, including U.S.-Israel actions against Iran. Core inflation remains sticky near 2.3%, prompting analysts like Morgan Stanley to scrap prior cut forecasts four days ago, while the IMF anticipates a 50 basis-point hike. Upcoming June policy meeting looms as the next catalyst, with higher-for-longer stance dominating amid geopolitical risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$27,513Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's April 30 decision to hold key rates steady at 2.00% deposit facility amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. Recent ECB staff projections and the Q2 Survey of Professional Forecasters revised 2026 headline inflation upward to 2.6-2.7%, fueled by energy price spikes from the ongoing Middle East conflict, including U.S.-Israel actions against Iran. Core inflation remains sticky near 2.3%, prompting analysts like Morgan Stanley to scrap prior cut forecasts four days ago, while the IMF anticipates a 50 basis-point hike. Upcoming June policy meeting looms as the next catalyst, with higher-for-longer stance dominating amid geopolitical risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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