A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced November 27, 2024, has halted major hostilities after Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon degraded the group's rocket arsenal and killed leader Hassan Nasrallah. The deal mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli troop pullback within 60 days, and Lebanese army deployment with UNIFIL oversight to enforce UN Resolution 1701's long-standing disarmament provisions. However, new Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem has declared the group's weapons "sacred" and non-negotiable, resisting calls from the US, France, and Lebanese officials for demilitarization. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance risks, fragile Lebanese politics, and Iranian backing amid no concrete disarmament timeline, with violations potentially sparking renewed escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРазоружит ли Хезболла...?
Разоружит ли Хезболла...?
$853,619 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
31 марта
<1%
31 декабря
23%
$853,619 Объем
31 марта
$837,682 Объем
<1%
31 декабря
$15,937 Объем
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced November 27, 2024, has halted major hostilities after Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon degraded the group's rocket arsenal and killed leader Hassan Nasrallah. The deal mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli troop pullback within 60 days, and Lebanese army deployment with UNIFIL oversight to enforce UN Resolution 1701's long-standing disarmament provisions. However, new Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem has declared the group's weapons "sacred" and non-negotiable, resisting calls from the US, France, and Lebanese officials for demilitarization. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance risks, fragile Lebanese politics, and Iranian backing amid no concrete disarmament timeline, with violations potentially sparking renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET
Объем
$853,619Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced November 27, 2024, has halted major hostilities after Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon degraded the group's rocket arsenal and killed leader Hassan Nasrallah. The deal mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli troop pullback within 60 days, and Lebanese army deployment with UNIFIL oversight to enforce UN Resolution 1701's long-standing disarmament provisions. However, new Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem has declared the group's weapons "sacred" and non-negotiable, resisting calls from the US, France, and Lebanese officials for demilitarization. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance risks, fragile Lebanese politics, and Iranian backing amid no concrete disarmament timeline, with violations potentially sparking renewed escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Объем
$853,619Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, announced November 27, 2024, has halted major hostilities after Israel's October ground incursion into southern Lebanon degraded the group's rocket arsenal and killed leader Hassan Nasrallah. The deal mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River, Israeli troop pullback within 60 days, and Lebanese army deployment with UNIFIL oversight to enforce UN Resolution 1701's long-standing disarmament provisions. However, new Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem has declared the group's weapons "sacred" and non-negotiable, resisting calls from the US, France, and Lebanese officials for demilitarization. Traders weigh ceasefire compliance risks, fragile Lebanese politics, and Iranian backing amid no concrete disarmament timeline, with violations potentially sparking renewed escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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