Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered talks and unrelenting frontline escalation as of late March 2026. Recent U.S.-Ukraine delegations met in Florida on March 22 amid mutual strikes, but negotiations halted over Russia's insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and demilitarization—demands rejected by Kyiv seeking full territorial restoration and NATO-aligned guarantees—while Moscow advanced incrementally near Pokrovsk. Secretary Rubio's March 27 denial of Zelenskyy claims on security guarantees underscored irreconcilable gaps, with no bilateral summits scheduled and attention shifting to Middle East tensions. Realistic shifters include a surprise multilateral breakthrough or mutual resource exhaustion, though persistent airstrikes like Odesa's on March 28 signal de-escalation barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРоссия x Украина прекращение огня до 30 апреля 2026 года?
Россия x Украина прекращение огня до 30 апреля 2026 года?
Да
$1,028,496 Объем
$1,028,496 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Да
$1,028,496 Объем
$1,028,496 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered talks and unrelenting frontline escalation as of late March 2026. Recent U.S.-Ukraine delegations met in Florida on March 22 amid mutual strikes, but negotiations halted over Russia's insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and demilitarization—demands rejected by Kyiv seeking full territorial restoration and NATO-aligned guarantees—while Moscow advanced incrementally near Pokrovsk. Secretary Rubio's March 27 denial of Zelenskyy claims on security guarantees underscored irreconcilable gaps, with no bilateral summits scheduled and attention shifting to Middle East tensions. Realistic shifters include a surprise multilateral breakthrough or mutual resource exhaustion, though persistent airstrikes like Odesa's on March 28 signal de-escalation barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Объем
$1,028,496Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered talks and unrelenting frontline escalation as of late March 2026. Recent U.S.-Ukraine delegations met in Florida on March 22 amid mutual strikes, but negotiations halted over Russia's insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and demilitarization—demands rejected by Kyiv seeking full territorial restoration and NATO-aligned guarantees—while Moscow advanced incrementally near Pokrovsk. Secretary Rubio's March 27 denial of Zelenskyy claims on security guarantees underscored irreconcilable gaps, with no bilateral summits scheduled and attention shifting to Middle East tensions. Realistic shifters include a surprise multilateral breakthrough or mutual resource exhaustion, though persistent airstrikes like Odesa's on March 28 signal de-escalation barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$1,028,496Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.7% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered talks and unrelenting frontline escalation as of late March 2026. Recent U.S.-Ukraine delegations met in Florida on March 22 amid mutual strikes, but negotiations halted over Russia's insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk and demilitarization—demands rejected by Kyiv seeking full territorial restoration and NATO-aligned guarantees—while Moscow advanced incrementally near Pokrovsk. Secretary Rubio's March 27 denial of Zelenskyy claims on security guarantees underscored irreconcilable gaps, with no bilateral summits scheduled and attention shifting to Middle East tensions. Realistic shifters include a surprise multilateral breakthrough or mutual resource exhaustion, though persistent airstrikes like Odesa's on March 28 signal de-escalation barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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