Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including the capture of villages near Pokrovsk amid intensified drone and missile barrages in late December 2024, underscore the absence of de-escalation signals driving trader consensus toward a 97% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026. President Putin's insistence on territorial concessions like Crimea and Donbas as preconditions for talks clashes with President Zelenskyy's demands for full Russian troop withdrawal, stalling diplomacy despite recent Zelenskyy-Trump discussions yielding no breakthroughs. Ukraine's manpower shortages and delayed Western aid further entrench the stalemate. Realistic shifts could arise from major battlefield reversals, leadership changes, or forceful U.S. mediation post-inauguration, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest high barriers to agreement within the timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРоссия x Украина прекращение огня до 30 апреля 2026 года?
Россия x Украина прекращение огня до 30 апреля 2026 года?
Да
$1,008,469 Объем
$1,008,469 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
Да
$1,008,469 Объем
$1,008,469 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including the capture of villages near Pokrovsk amid intensified drone and missile barrages in late December 2024, underscore the absence of de-escalation signals driving trader consensus toward a 97% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026. President Putin's insistence on territorial concessions like Crimea and Donbas as preconditions for talks clashes with President Zelenskyy's demands for full Russian troop withdrawal, stalling diplomacy despite recent Zelenskyy-Trump discussions yielding no breakthroughs. Ukraine's manpower shortages and delayed Western aid further entrench the stalemate. Realistic shifts could arise from major battlefield reversals, leadership changes, or forceful U.S. mediation post-inauguration, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest high barriers to agreement within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Объем
$1,008,469Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including the capture of villages near Pokrovsk amid intensified drone and missile barrages in late December 2024, underscore the absence of de-escalation signals driving trader consensus toward a 97% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026. President Putin's insistence on territorial concessions like Crimea and Donbas as preconditions for talks clashes with President Zelenskyy's demands for full Russian troop withdrawal, stalling diplomacy despite recent Zelenskyy-Trump discussions yielding no breakthroughs. Ukraine's manpower shortages and delayed Western aid further entrench the stalemate. Realistic shifts could arise from major battlefield reversals, leadership changes, or forceful U.S. mediation post-inauguration, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest high barriers to agreement within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$1,008,469Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Russian military advances in eastern Ukraine, including the capture of villages near Pokrovsk amid intensified drone and missile barrages in late December 2024, underscore the absence of de-escalation signals driving trader consensus toward a 97% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026. President Putin's insistence on territorial concessions like Crimea and Donbas as preconditions for talks clashes with President Zelenskyy's demands for full Russian troop withdrawal, stalling diplomacy despite recent Zelenskyy-Trump discussions yielding no breakthroughs. Ukraine's manpower shortages and delayed Western aid further entrench the stalemate. Realistic shifts could arise from major battlefield reversals, leadership changes, or forceful U.S. mediation post-inauguration, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest high barriers to agreement within the timeline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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