NATO members have not faced an armed attack on alliance territory since the 2001 invocation of Article 5 after 9/11, sustaining the high bar of unanimous consensus required for activation. Russia’s operations in non-NATO Ukraine produced only sub-threshold incidents in 2025, including drone incursions into Poland and airspace violations over Estonia, which triggered Article 4 consultations and defensive steps such as Operation Eastern Sentry rather than collective defense. Comparable episodes near Turkey were explicitly ruled out by alliance leaders. NATO has reinforced its eastern flank through enhanced vigilance, new defense spending commitments agreed at the 2025 summit, and diplomatic channels, while the Iran conflict de-escalated without involving member territory. These factors underpin trader consensus that no qualifying event will occur before 2027.