Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors NATO's continuity before 2027, driven by the alliance's reinforced unity at the July 2024 Washington summit, where leaders committed €40 billion annually to Ukraine aid and 23 of 32 members met the 2% GDP defense spending target amid Russia's ongoing invasion. No member state has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures, which require one year's notice, and full dissolution demands unanimous consent—an improbable threshold given heightened cohesion against shared threats. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's handover to Mark Rutte on October 1 proceeds without disruption, while European allies expand capabilities amid U.S. election uncertainties. Geopolitical shocks like escalated conflicts or mass exits could shift odds, but current diplomatic postures signal stability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНАТО распадается до 2027 года?
НАТО распадается до 2027 года?
Да
$55,469 Объем
$55,469 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$55,469 Объем
$55,469 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors NATO's continuity before 2027, driven by the alliance's reinforced unity at the July 2024 Washington summit, where leaders committed €40 billion annually to Ukraine aid and 23 of 32 members met the 2% GDP defense spending target amid Russia's ongoing invasion. No member state has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures, which require one year's notice, and full dissolution demands unanimous consent—an improbable threshold given heightened cohesion against shared threats. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's handover to Mark Rutte on October 1 proceeds without disruption, while European allies expand capabilities amid U.S. election uncertainties. Geopolitical shocks like escalated conflicts or mass exits could shift odds, but current diplomatic postures signal stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Объем
$55,469Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors NATO's continuity before 2027, driven by the alliance's reinforced unity at the July 2024 Washington summit, where leaders committed €40 billion annually to Ukraine aid and 23 of 32 members met the 2% GDP defense spending target amid Russia's ongoing invasion. No member state has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures, which require one year's notice, and full dissolution demands unanimous consent—an improbable threshold given heightened cohesion against shared threats. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's handover to Mark Rutte on October 1 proceeds without disruption, while European allies expand capabilities amid U.S. election uncertainties. Geopolitical shocks like escalated conflicts or mass exits could shift odds, but current diplomatic postures signal stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$55,469Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors NATO's continuity before 2027, driven by the alliance's reinforced unity at the July 2024 Washington summit, where leaders committed €40 billion annually to Ukraine aid and 23 of 32 members met the 2% GDP defense spending target amid Russia's ongoing invasion. No member state has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures, which require one year's notice, and full dissolution demands unanimous consent—an improbable threshold given heightened cohesion against shared threats. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's handover to Mark Rutte on October 1 proceeds without disruption, while European allies expand capabilities amid U.S. election uncertainties. Geopolitical shocks like escalated conflicts or mass exits could shift odds, but current diplomatic postures signal stability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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