NATO's institutional resilience and unanimous commitment among its 32-plus members underpin the 92% implied probability against dissolution before 2027, as invoking Article 13 withdrawal requires ratification by every ally—a procedural barrier unmet by any state. The July 2024 Washington Summit reinforced unity with pledges for sustained Ukraine support, a "bridge to membership," and record defense spending, with 23 allies now meeting the 2% GDP target amid Russian aggression. Recent Sweden accession in March 2024 and Finland's prior entry expanded the alliance, while President-elect Trump's burden-sharing critiques signal demands for higher contributions rather than exit. The 2025 Hague Summit looms as a key test, but no credible escalation risks consensus breakup.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНАТО распадается до 2027 года?
НАТО распадается до 2027 года?
Да
$55,493 Объем
$55,493 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$55,493 Объем
$55,493 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional resilience and unanimous commitment among its 32-plus members underpin the 92% implied probability against dissolution before 2027, as invoking Article 13 withdrawal requires ratification by every ally—a procedural barrier unmet by any state. The July 2024 Washington Summit reinforced unity with pledges for sustained Ukraine support, a "bridge to membership," and record defense spending, with 23 allies now meeting the 2% GDP target amid Russian aggression. Recent Sweden accession in March 2024 and Finland's prior entry expanded the alliance, while President-elect Trump's burden-sharing critiques signal demands for higher contributions rather than exit. The 2025 Hague Summit looms as a key test, but no credible escalation risks consensus breakup.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Объем
$55,493Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional resilience and unanimous commitment among its 32-plus members underpin the 92% implied probability against dissolution before 2027, as invoking Article 13 withdrawal requires ratification by every ally—a procedural barrier unmet by any state. The July 2024 Washington Summit reinforced unity with pledges for sustained Ukraine support, a "bridge to membership," and record defense spending, with 23 allies now meeting the 2% GDP target amid Russian aggression. Recent Sweden accession in March 2024 and Finland's prior entry expanded the alliance, while President-elect Trump's burden-sharing critiques signal demands for higher contributions rather than exit. The 2025 Hague Summit looms as a key test, but no credible escalation risks consensus breakup.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$55,493Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NATO's institutional resilience and unanimous commitment among its 32-plus members underpin the 92% implied probability against dissolution before 2027, as invoking Article 13 withdrawal requires ratification by every ally—a procedural barrier unmet by any state. The July 2024 Washington Summit reinforced unity with pledges for sustained Ukraine support, a "bridge to membership," and record defense spending, with 23 allies now meeting the 2% GDP target amid Russian aggression. Recent Sweden accession in March 2024 and Finland's prior entry expanded the alliance, while President-elect Trump's burden-sharing critiques signal demands for higher contributions rather than exit. The 2025 Hague Summit looms as a key test, but no credible escalation risks consensus breakup.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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