The European Union's institutional architecture, anchored in binding treaties and shared governance bodies such as the European Commission, Parliament, and Court of Justice, creates substantial structural barriers to dissolution. Ongoing cooperation on trade, regulation, and foreign policy among 27 member states, reinforced by economic interdependence and recent joint responses to external pressures, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. No credible legislative or diplomatic process exists for rapid breakup within the 2027 timeframe. Tail risks that could still shift probabilities include simultaneous member-state withdrawals, a severe multi-country fiscal crisis prompting treaty renegotiation, or major geopolitical shocks altering alliance incentives, though all remain low-probability events absent unprecedented coordination.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЕС распадется до 2027 года?
ЕС распадется до 2027 года?
Да
1% вероятность
$180,293 Объем
$180,293 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
1% вероятность
$180,293 Объем
$180,293 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Union's institutional architecture, anchored in binding treaties and shared governance bodies such as the European Commission, Parliament, and Court of Justice, creates substantial structural barriers to dissolution. Ongoing cooperation on trade, regulation, and foreign policy among 27 member states, reinforced by economic interdependence and recent joint responses to external pressures, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. No credible legislative or diplomatic process exists for rapid breakup within the 2027 timeframe. Tail risks that could still shift probabilities include simultaneous member-state withdrawals, a severe multi-country fiscal crisis prompting treaty renegotiation, or major geopolitical shocks altering alliance incentives, though all remain low-probability events absent unprecedented coordination.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Объем
$180,293Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The European Union's institutional architecture, anchored in binding treaties and shared governance bodies such as the European Commission, Parliament, and Court of Justice, creates substantial structural barriers to dissolution. Ongoing cooperation on trade, regulation, and foreign policy among 27 member states, reinforced by economic interdependence and recent joint responses to external pressures, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. No credible legislative or diplomatic process exists for rapid breakup within the 2027 timeframe. Tail risks that could still shift probabilities include simultaneous member-state withdrawals, a severe multi-country fiscal crisis prompting treaty renegotiation, or major geopolitical shocks altering alliance incentives, though all remain low-probability events absent unprecedented coordination.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$180,293Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The European Union's institutional architecture, anchored in binding treaties and shared governance bodies such as the European Commission, Parliament, and Court of Justice, creates substantial structural barriers to dissolution. Ongoing cooperation on trade, regulation, and foreign policy among 27 member states, reinforced by economic interdependence and recent joint responses to external pressures, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. No credible legislative or diplomatic process exists for rapid breakup within the 2027 timeframe. Tail risks that could still shift probabilities include simultaneous member-state withdrawals, a severe multi-country fiscal crisis prompting treaty renegotiation, or major geopolitical shocks altering alliance incentives, though all remain low-probability events absent unprecedented coordination.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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