Trader consensus implies a 96.3% probability against EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the bloc's robust institutional framework under the Treaty on European Union, which lacks any mechanism for outright dissolution and requires sequential Article 50 withdrawals by multiple member states—a path untraveled since Brexit. No recent developments in the past 30 days, such as Article 50 invocations, Eurosceptic coalition breakthroughs, or snap referendums on exits like Frexit or Italexit, have materialized; instead, the European Commission reinforced EU Emissions Trading System stability in early April 2026 amid economic reform pushes. High confidence reflects economic interdependence in the single market and eurozone, shared geopolitical challenges including Ukraine support, and historical resilience to crises. Realistic disruptors include a cascading sovereign debt crisis or major war escalation fracturing alliances, though these face steep procedural hurdles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЕС распадется до 2027 года?
ЕС распадется до 2027 года?
Да
$159,659 Объем
$159,659 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$159,659 Объем
$159,659 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 96.3% probability against EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the bloc's robust institutional framework under the Treaty on European Union, which lacks any mechanism for outright dissolution and requires sequential Article 50 withdrawals by multiple member states—a path untraveled since Brexit. No recent developments in the past 30 days, such as Article 50 invocations, Eurosceptic coalition breakthroughs, or snap referendums on exits like Frexit or Italexit, have materialized; instead, the European Commission reinforced EU Emissions Trading System stability in early April 2026 amid economic reform pushes. High confidence reflects economic interdependence in the single market and eurozone, shared geopolitical challenges including Ukraine support, and historical resilience to crises. Realistic disruptors include a cascading sovereign debt crisis or major war escalation fracturing alliances, though these face steep procedural hurdles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Объем
$159,659Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 96.3% probability against EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the bloc's robust institutional framework under the Treaty on European Union, which lacks any mechanism for outright dissolution and requires sequential Article 50 withdrawals by multiple member states—a path untraveled since Brexit. No recent developments in the past 30 days, such as Article 50 invocations, Eurosceptic coalition breakthroughs, or snap referendums on exits like Frexit or Italexit, have materialized; instead, the European Commission reinforced EU Emissions Trading System stability in early April 2026 amid economic reform pushes. High confidence reflects economic interdependence in the single market and eurozone, shared geopolitical challenges including Ukraine support, and historical resilience to crises. Realistic disruptors include a cascading sovereign debt crisis or major war escalation fracturing alliances, though these face steep procedural hurdles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$159,659Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 96.3% probability against EU dissolution before 2027, driven by the bloc's robust institutional framework under the Treaty on European Union, which lacks any mechanism for outright dissolution and requires sequential Article 50 withdrawals by multiple member states—a path untraveled since Brexit. No recent developments in the past 30 days, such as Article 50 invocations, Eurosceptic coalition breakthroughs, or snap referendums on exits like Frexit or Italexit, have materialized; instead, the European Commission reinforced EU Emissions Trading System stability in early April 2026 amid economic reform pushes. High confidence reflects economic interdependence in the single market and eurozone, shared geopolitical challenges including Ukraine support, and historical resilience to crises. Realistic disruptors include a cascading sovereign debt crisis or major war escalation fracturing alliances, though these face steep procedural hurdles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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