Trader consensus heavily favors no EU member state withdrawing before the end of 2026, with 93.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting the absence of any formal Article 50 invocations since the UK's Brexit in 2020. Post-Brexit economic challenges have deterred Eurosceptic movements, while recent rhetoric—such as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 2026 warning of potential "Polexit" risks if his coalition loses power in 2027 elections, or symbolic actions like French far-right mayors removing EU flags in early April—remains confined to political posturing without substantive legislative or referendum pushes. Hungary's Viktor Orbán continues criticism but prioritizes bloc benefits, and Dutch or Italian governments show no exit momentum amid ongoing coalition negotiations. Late-breaking scandals, snap referendums, or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, though structural barriers like multi-year withdrawal timelines make action unlikely by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЛюбая страна выходит из ЕС до 2027 года?
Любая страна выходит из ЕС до 2027 года?
Да
$110,806 Объем
$110,806 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$110,806 Объем
$110,806 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no EU member state withdrawing before the end of 2026, with 93.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting the absence of any formal Article 50 invocations since the UK's Brexit in 2020. Post-Brexit economic challenges have deterred Eurosceptic movements, while recent rhetoric—such as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 2026 warning of potential "Polexit" risks if his coalition loses power in 2027 elections, or symbolic actions like French far-right mayors removing EU flags in early April—remains confined to political posturing without substantive legislative or referendum pushes. Hungary's Viktor Orbán continues criticism but prioritizes bloc benefits, and Dutch or Italian governments show no exit momentum amid ongoing coalition negotiations. Late-breaking scandals, snap referendums, or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, though structural barriers like multi-year withdrawal timelines make action unlikely by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Объем
$110,806Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no EU member state withdrawing before the end of 2026, with 93.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting the absence of any formal Article 50 invocations since the UK's Brexit in 2020. Post-Brexit economic challenges have deterred Eurosceptic movements, while recent rhetoric—such as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 2026 warning of potential "Polexit" risks if his coalition loses power in 2027 elections, or symbolic actions like French far-right mayors removing EU flags in early April—remains confined to political posturing without substantive legislative or referendum pushes. Hungary's Viktor Orbán continues criticism but prioritizes bloc benefits, and Dutch or Italian governments show no exit momentum amid ongoing coalition negotiations. Late-breaking scandals, snap referendums, or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, though structural barriers like multi-year withdrawal timelines make action unlikely by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$110,806Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no EU member state withdrawing before the end of 2026, with 93.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting the absence of any formal Article 50 invocations since the UK's Brexit in 2020. Post-Brexit economic challenges have deterred Eurosceptic movements, while recent rhetoric—such as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's March 2026 warning of potential "Polexit" risks if his coalition loses power in 2027 elections, or symbolic actions like French far-right mayors removing EU flags in early April—remains confined to political posturing without substantive legislative or referendum pushes. Hungary's Viktor Orbán continues criticism but prioritizes bloc benefits, and Dutch or Italian governments show no exit momentum amid ongoing coalition negotiations. Late-breaking scandals, snap referendums, or geopolitical shocks could shift odds, though structural barriers like multi-year withdrawal timelines make action unlikely by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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