Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters around 240-279 tweets for Elon Musk from April 3 to 10 (31% combined implied probability across top bins), anchored to his consistent ~30-35 posts per day from recent weeks, including ~216-269 in the March 27-April 3 window per tracking data. This closely matched race between 240-259 and 260-279 stems from competitive dynamics balancing his baseline rhythm of memes, Grok/xAI promotions, and DOGE commentary against potential spikes from viral pop culture moments—like today's Starship flight timeline reveal or rebuttals to SpaceX IPO rumors. Key differentiators include unpredictable bursts tied to breaking news, political jabs, or social media engagement highs, with no major catalysts locked yet but rapid shifts possible as the tech titan shapes online discourse.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено240-259 16%
260-279 16%
280-299 13%
220-239 12%
$814,744 Объем
$814,744 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60–79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
7%
220-239
12%
240-259
16%
260-279
16%
280-299
13%
300–319
12%
320-339
8%
340-359
7%
360-379
6%
380–399
3%
400–419
2%
420-439
1%
440–459
1%
460-479
1%
480–499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
240-259 16%
260-279 16%
280-299 13%
220-239 12%
$814,744 Объем
$814,744 Объем
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60–79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
7%
220-239
12%
240-259
16%
260-279
16%
280-299
13%
300–319
12%
320-339
8%
340-359
7%
360-379
6%
380–399
3%
400–419
2%
420-439
1%
440–459
1%
460-479
1%
480–499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters around 240-279 tweets for Elon Musk from April 3 to 10 (31% combined implied probability across top bins), anchored to his consistent ~30-35 posts per day from recent weeks, including ~216-269 in the March 27-April 3 window per tracking data. This closely matched race between 240-259 and 260-279 stems from competitive dynamics balancing his baseline rhythm of memes, Grok/xAI promotions, and DOGE commentary against potential spikes from viral pop culture moments—like today's Starship flight timeline reveal or rebuttals to SpaceX IPO rumors. Key differentiators include unpredictable bursts tied to breaking news, political jabs, or social media engagement highs, with no major catalysts locked yet but rapid shifts possible as the tech titan shapes online discourse.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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