Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to "No" on OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, citing production quota disputes. Saudi Arabia, holding the bulk of spare capacity at around 1.5 million barrels per day, anchors cohesion, as evidenced by OPEC+'s April 5 extension of output cuts through year-end and a planned Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on May 3. Recent virtual ministerial gatherings underscore ongoing coordination amid steady global oil demand and non-OPEC supply constraints. Realistic challenges include further defections from Iraq or Kuwait, escalating Iran-related geopolitical risks, or a sharp crude price collapse eroding member incentives.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to "No" on OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, citing production quota disputes. Saudi Arabia, holding the bulk of spare capacity at around 1.5 million barrels per day, anchors cohesion, as evidenced by OPEC+'s April 5 extension of output cuts through year-end and a planned Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on May 3. Recent virtual ministerial gatherings underscore ongoing coordination amid steady global oil demand and non-OPEC supply constraints. Realistic challenges include further defections from Iraq or Kuwait, escalating Iran-related geopolitical risks, or a sharp crude price collapse eroding member incentives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Объем
$2,400Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to "No" on OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, citing production quota disputes. Saudi Arabia, holding the bulk of spare capacity at around 1.5 million barrels per day, anchors cohesion, as evidenced by OPEC+'s April 5 extension of output cuts through year-end and a planned Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on May 3. Recent virtual ministerial gatherings underscore ongoing coordination amid steady global oil demand and non-OPEC supply constraints. Realistic challenges include further defections from Iraq or Kuwait, escalating Iran-related geopolitical risks, or a sharp crude price collapse eroding member incentives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$2,400Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to "No" on OPEC dissolution in 2026, reflecting strong consensus on the cartel's resilience despite the United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28 to exit effective May 1, citing production quota disputes. Saudi Arabia, holding the bulk of spare capacity at around 1.5 million barrels per day, anchors cohesion, as evidenced by OPEC+'s April 5 extension of output cuts through year-end and a planned Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on May 3. Recent virtual ministerial gatherings underscore ongoing coordination amid steady global oil demand and non-OPEC supply constraints. Realistic challenges include further defections from Iraq or Kuwait, escalating Iran-related geopolitical risks, or a sharp crude price collapse eroding member incentives.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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