Recent coordinated production adjustments by remaining OPEC+ members, including a modest June 2026 output increase announced in the group's first meeting after the UAE's May departure, underscore institutional continuity and trader consensus that dissolution remains unlikely. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other core producers have repeatedly reaffirmed commitments to market stability through voluntary quota compliance and monthly reviews, supporting the 91.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. While further member exits or major supply shocks could introduce volatility, the absence of such signals and the group's focus on balancing global oil inventories reinforce current pricing. Key catalysts ahead include the June ministerial meeting and ongoing demand forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$19,078 Объем
$19,078 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
$19,078 Объем
$19,078 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent coordinated production adjustments by remaining OPEC+ members, including a modest June 2026 output increase announced in the group's first meeting after the UAE's May departure, underscore institutional continuity and trader consensus that dissolution remains unlikely. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other core producers have repeatedly reaffirmed commitments to market stability through voluntary quota compliance and monthly reviews, supporting the 91.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. While further member exits or major supply shocks could introduce volatility, the absence of such signals and the group's focus on balancing global oil inventories reinforce current pricing. Key catalysts ahead include the June ministerial meeting and ongoing demand forecasts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Объем
$19,078Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent coordinated production adjustments by remaining OPEC+ members, including a modest June 2026 output increase announced in the group's first meeting after the UAE's May departure, underscore institutional continuity and trader consensus that dissolution remains unlikely. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other core producers have repeatedly reaffirmed commitments to market stability through voluntary quota compliance and monthly reviews, supporting the 91.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. While further member exits or major supply shocks could introduce volatility, the absence of such signals and the group's focus on balancing global oil inventories reinforce current pricing. Key catalysts ahead include the June ministerial meeting and ongoing demand forecasts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$19,078Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent coordinated production adjustments by remaining OPEC+ members, including a modest June 2026 output increase announced in the group's first meeting after the UAE's May departure, underscore institutional continuity and trader consensus that dissolution remains unlikely. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other core producers have repeatedly reaffirmed commitments to market stability through voluntary quota compliance and monthly reviews, supporting the 91.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. While further member exits or major supply shocks could introduce volatility, the absence of such signals and the group's focus on balancing global oil inventories reinforce current pricing. Key catalysts ahead include the June ministerial meeting and ongoing demand forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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