Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026, reflecting the cartel's continued operational cohesion amid geopolitical pressures. Recent June 2026 ministerial meetings reaffirmed production quotas through December, with participating members executing incremental output hikes of 188,000 barrels per day while issuing updated demand forecasts. This sustained coordination, including OPEC+'s ongoing compensation mechanisms and capacity reviews, underscores institutional resilience despite the UAE's earlier exit and Hormuz-related supply disruptions. Market-implied odds price in low dissolution risk given historical precedent and the group's role in managing global crude balances. A realistic challenge could emerge only from coordinated member withdrawals or major policy fractures that erode quota compliance, though current data shows no such trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОПЕК распадается в 2026 году?
ОПЕК распадается в 2026 году?
Да
$31,126 Объем
$31,126 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$31,126 Объем
$31,126 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026, reflecting the cartel's continued operational cohesion amid geopolitical pressures. Recent June 2026 ministerial meetings reaffirmed production quotas through December, with participating members executing incremental output hikes of 188,000 barrels per day while issuing updated demand forecasts. This sustained coordination, including OPEC+'s ongoing compensation mechanisms and capacity reviews, underscores institutional resilience despite the UAE's earlier exit and Hormuz-related supply disruptions. Market-implied odds price in low dissolution risk given historical precedent and the group's role in managing global crude balances. A realistic challenge could emerge only from coordinated member withdrawals or major policy fractures that erode quota compliance, though current data shows no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Объем
$31,126Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026, reflecting the cartel's continued operational cohesion amid geopolitical pressures. Recent June 2026 ministerial meetings reaffirmed production quotas through December, with participating members executing incremental output hikes of 188,000 barrels per day while issuing updated demand forecasts. This sustained coordination, including OPEC+'s ongoing compensation mechanisms and capacity reviews, underscores institutional resilience despite the UAE's earlier exit and Hormuz-related supply disruptions. Market-implied odds price in low dissolution risk given historical precedent and the group's role in managing global crude balances. A realistic challenge could emerge only from coordinated member withdrawals or major policy fractures that erode quota compliance, though current data shows no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$31,126Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026, reflecting the cartel's continued operational cohesion amid geopolitical pressures. Recent June 2026 ministerial meetings reaffirmed production quotas through December, with participating members executing incremental output hikes of 188,000 barrels per day while issuing updated demand forecasts. This sustained coordination, including OPEC+'s ongoing compensation mechanisms and capacity reviews, underscores institutional resilience despite the UAE's earlier exit and Hormuz-related supply disruptions. Market-implied odds price in low dissolution risk given historical precedent and the group's role in managing global crude balances. A realistic challenge could emerge only from coordinated member withdrawals or major policy fractures that erode quota compliance, though current data shows no such trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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