Ukraine maintains its explicit commitment to NATO membership as a core security objective amid the ongoing Russia conflict, with no public signals or negotiations indicating any willingness to accept neutrality by the August 31 deadline. NATO allies reaffirmed this path at the 2026 Ankara Summit through pledges of sustained military aid and statements describing integration as irreversible, while Ukrainian leadership continues appeals for advanced air defenses and interoperability support. Recent escalations in Russian strikes have reinforced rather than diminished these positions. Trader consensus at 98.7% on “No” reflects the absence of diplomatic pressure or bilateral concessions capable of producing such an agreement in the narrow remaining window; a sudden breakthrough in mediated talks forcing neutrality terms remains the primary low-probability scenario that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
1% вероятность
$23,989 Объем
$23,989 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
Да
1% вероятность
$23,989 Объем
$23,989 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its explicit commitment to NATO membership as a core security objective amid the ongoing Russia conflict, with no public signals or negotiations indicating any willingness to accept neutrality by the August 31 deadline. NATO allies reaffirmed this path at the 2026 Ankara Summit through pledges of sustained military aid and statements describing integration as irreversible, while Ukrainian leadership continues appeals for advanced air defenses and interoperability support. Recent escalations in Russian strikes have reinforced rather than diminished these positions. Trader consensus at 98.7% on “No” reflects the absence of diplomatic pressure or bilateral concessions capable of producing such an agreement in the narrow remaining window; a sudden breakthrough in mediated talks forcing neutrality terms remains the primary low-probability scenario that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Открытие рынка: Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Объем
$23,989Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its explicit commitment to NATO membership as a core security objective amid the ongoing Russia conflict, with no public signals or negotiations indicating any willingness to accept neutrality by the August 31 deadline. NATO allies reaffirmed this path at the 2026 Ankara Summit through pledges of sustained military aid and statements describing integration as irreversible, while Ukrainian leadership continues appeals for advanced air defenses and interoperability support. Recent escalations in Russian strikes have reinforced rather than diminished these positions. Trader consensus at 98.7% on “No” reflects the absence of diplomatic pressure or bilateral concessions capable of producing such an agreement in the narrow remaining window; a sudden breakthrough in mediated talks forcing neutrality terms remains the primary low-probability scenario that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Объем
$23,989Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine maintains its explicit commitment to NATO membership as a core security objective amid the ongoing Russia conflict, with no public signals or negotiations indicating any willingness to accept neutrality by the August 31 deadline. NATO allies reaffirmed this path at the 2026 Ankara Summit through pledges of sustained military aid and statements describing integration as irreversible, while Ukrainian leadership continues appeals for advanced air defenses and interoperability support. Recent escalations in Russian strikes have reinforced rather than diminished these positions. Trader consensus at 98.7% on “No” reflects the absence of diplomatic pressure or bilateral concessions capable of producing such an agreement in the narrow remaining window; a sudden breakthrough in mediated talks forcing neutrality terms remains the primary low-probability scenario that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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