Ukraine's steadfast commitment to NATO accession, reiterated by President Zelenskyy in late June statements urging immediate membership invitations, underpins the 87% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo joining the alliance by June 30. The Swiss peace summit on June 15-16 produced no breakthroughs on neutrality demands from Russia, which boycotted the event, while NATO leaders at pre-summit meetings affirmed support for Ukraine's path without timelines or concessions. With the NATO Washington summit set for July 9-11, traders view diplomatic escalation signals and Ukraine's rejection of territorial or alliance compromises as major barriers to any such agreement, though a sudden ceasefire negotiation could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$14,541 Объем
$14,541 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
Да
$14,541 Объем
$14,541 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine's steadfast commitment to NATO accession, reiterated by President Zelenskyy in late June statements urging immediate membership invitations, underpins the 87% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo joining the alliance by June 30. The Swiss peace summit on June 15-16 produced no breakthroughs on neutrality demands from Russia, which boycotted the event, while NATO leaders at pre-summit meetings affirmed support for Ukraine's path without timelines or concessions. With the NATO Washington summit set for July 9-11, traders view diplomatic escalation signals and Ukraine's rejection of territorial or alliance compromises as major barriers to any such agreement, though a sudden ceasefire negotiation could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Открытие рынка: Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
Объем
$14,541Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine's steadfast commitment to NATO accession, reiterated by President Zelenskyy in late June statements urging immediate membership invitations, underpins the 87% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo joining the alliance by June 30. The Swiss peace summit on June 15-16 produced no breakthroughs on neutrality demands from Russia, which boycotted the event, while NATO leaders at pre-summit meetings affirmed support for Ukraine's path without timelines or concessions. With the NATO Washington summit set for July 9-11, traders view diplomatic escalation signals and Ukraine's rejection of territorial or alliance compromises as major barriers to any such agreement, though a sudden ceasefire negotiation could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Объем
$14,541Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's steadfast commitment to NATO accession, reiterated by President Zelenskyy in late June statements urging immediate membership invitations, underpins the 87% implied probability that Kyiv will not agree to forgo joining the alliance by June 30. The Swiss peace summit on June 15-16 produced no breakthroughs on neutrality demands from Russia, which boycotted the event, while NATO leaders at pre-summit meetings affirmed support for Ukraine's path without timelines or concessions. With the NATO Washington summit set for July 9-11, traders view diplomatic escalation signals and Ukraine's rejection of territorial or alliance compromises as major barriers to any such agreement, though a sudden ceasefire negotiation could shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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