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Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня?

Market icon

Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня?

Да

12% chance
Polymarket

$98,158 Объем

Да

12% chance
Polymarket

$98,158 Объем

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify. Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees. A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalized, and take the form of a treaty, executive agreement, memorandum of understanding, joint declaration, or equivalent written instrument. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, exploratory, or otherwise not indicative of a formalized policy will not count. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Qualifying European countries include: Albania; Andorra; Armenia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Georgia; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Liechtenstein; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; Netherlands; North Macedonia; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Romania; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Ukraine; United Kingdom.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88.5% implied probability for "No" as no new bilateral security guarantee agreements between Ukraine and any European country have materialized since Germany's signing on May 28, with the June 30 deadline now weeks away. The G7 summit in Italy (June 13-15) saw leaders, including Zelenskyy, reaffirm commitments to Ukraine's long-term security amid Russia's ongoing invasion but produced no fresh pacts amid European political distractions like recent EU Parliament elections and France's snap legislative vote on June 30. Ongoing negotiations with countries like the Netherlands and Norway lack firm timelines for completion or ratification before the cutoff, underscoring procedural hurdles and domestic priorities tempering expectations for a last-minute deal.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88.5% implied probability for "No" as no new bilateral security guarantee agreements between Ukraine and any European country have materialized since Germany's signing on May 28, with the June 30 deadline now weeks away. The G7 summit in Italy (June 13-15) saw leaders, including Zelenskyy, reaffirm commitments to Ukraine's long-term security amid Russia's ongoing invasion but produced no fresh pacts amid European political distractions like recent EU Parliament elections and France's snap legislative vote on June 30. Ongoing negotiations with countries like the Netherlands and Norway lack firm timelines for completion or ratification before the cutoff, underscoring procedural hurdles and domestic priorities tempering expectations for a last-minute deal.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify. Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees. A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalized, and take the form of a treaty, executive agreement, memorandum of understanding, joint declaration, or equivalent written instrument. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, exploratory, or otherwise not indicative of a formalized policy will not count. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Qualifying European countries include: Albania; Andorra; Armenia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Georgia; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Liechtenstein; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; Netherlands; North Macedonia; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Romania; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Ukraine; United Kingdom.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88.5% implied probability for "No" as no new bilateral security guarantee agreements between Ukraine and any European country have materialized since Germany's signing on May 28, with the June 30 deadline now weeks away. The G7 summit in Italy (June 13-15) saw leaders, including Zelenskyy, reaffirm commitments to Ukraine's long-term security amid Russia's ongoing invasion but produced no fresh pacts amid European political distractions like recent EU Parliament elections and France's snap legislative vote on June 30. Ongoing negotiations with countries like the Netherlands and Norway lack firm timelines for completion or ratification before the cutoff, underscoring procedural hurdles and domestic priorities tempering expectations for a last-minute deal.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88.5% implied probability for "No" as no new bilateral security guarantee agreements between Ukraine and any European country have materialized since Germany's signing on May 28, with the June 30 deadline now weeks away. The G7 summit in Italy (June 13-15) saw leaders, including Zelenskyy, reaffirm commitments to Ukraine's long-term security amid Russia's ongoing invasion but produced no fresh pacts amid European political distractions like recent EU Parliament elections and France's snap legislative vote on June 30. Ongoing negotiations with countries like the Netherlands and Norway lack firm timelines for completion or ratification before the cutoff, underscoring procedural hurdles and domestic priorities tempering expectations for a last-minute deal.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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«Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня? » — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Европейская страна согласилась дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня?» с 12%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 12¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 12%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня? » сгенерировал общий объём торгов $98.2K с момента запуска рынка Dec 28, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня? », просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня? » — «Европейская страна согласилась дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня?» с 12%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 12%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня? » точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.