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Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня?

Market icon

Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня?

Да

12% chance
Polymarket

$98,346 Объем

Да

12% chance
Polymarket

$98,346 Объем

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify. Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees. A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalized, and take the form of a treaty, executive agreement, memorandum of understanding, joint declaration, or equivalent written instrument. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, exploratory, or otherwise not indicative of a formalized policy will not count. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Qualifying European countries include: Albania; Andorra; Armenia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Georgia; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Liechtenstein; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; Netherlands; North Macedonia; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Romania; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Ukraine; United Kingdom.Trader consensus prices an 88.5% chance against any European country formalizing a bilateral security guarantee for Ukraine by June 30, mirroring 2024 pacts with the UK, France, and Germany that include NATO Article 5-style mutual defense commitments. Recent multilateral pledges, such as the March 19 European Council statement where 25 EU nations backed long-term arms, training, and security assurances while overcoming Hungary's objections, do not qualify under market rules excluding group declarations like the Coalition of the Willing. Spain's March 18 defense production agreements and €1 billion 2026 aid package emphasize joint manufacturing over binding guarantees. U.S.-pushed ceasefire talks, with Zelenskyy disclosing March 25 demands for Donbas concessions, alongside European fiscal strains, signal a pivot to collective post-conflict arrangements, dimming prospects for new bilateral deals.

Trader consensus prices an 88.5% chance against any European country formalizing a bilateral security guarantee for Ukraine by June 30, mirroring 2024 pacts with the UK, France, and Germany that include NATO Article 5-style mutual defense commitments. Recent multilateral pledges, such as the March 19 European Council statement where 25 EU nations backed long-term arms, training, and security assurances while overcoming Hungary's objections, do not qualify under market rules excluding group declarations like the Coalition of the Willing. Spain's March 18 defense production agreements and €1 billion 2026 aid package emphasize joint manufacturing over binding guarantees. U.S.-pushed ceasefire talks, with Zelenskyy disclosing March 25 demands for Donbas concessions, alongside European fiscal strains, signal a pivot to collective post-conflict arrangements, dimming prospects for new bilateral deals.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify. Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees. A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalized, and take the form of a treaty, executive agreement, memorandum of understanding, joint declaration, or equivalent written instrument. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, exploratory, or otherwise not indicative of a formalized policy will not count. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Qualifying European countries include: Albania; Andorra; Armenia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Georgia; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Liechtenstein; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; Netherlands; North Macedonia; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Romania; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Ukraine; United Kingdom.Trader consensus prices an 88.5% chance against any European country formalizing a bilateral security guarantee for Ukraine by June 30, mirroring 2024 pacts with the UK, France, and Germany that include NATO Article 5-style mutual defense commitments. Recent multilateral pledges, such as the March 19 European Council statement where 25 EU nations backed long-term arms, training, and security assurances while overcoming Hungary's objections, do not qualify under market rules excluding group declarations like the Coalition of the Willing. Spain's March 18 defense production agreements and €1 billion 2026 aid package emphasize joint manufacturing over binding guarantees. U.S.-pushed ceasefire talks, with Zelenskyy disclosing March 25 demands for Donbas concessions, alongside European fiscal strains, signal a pivot to collective post-conflict arrangements, dimming prospects for new bilateral deals.

Trader consensus prices an 88.5% chance against any European country formalizing a bilateral security guarantee for Ukraine by June 30, mirroring 2024 pacts with the UK, France, and Germany that include NATO Article 5-style mutual defense commitments. Recent multilateral pledges, such as the March 19 European Council statement where 25 EU nations backed long-term arms, training, and security assurances while overcoming Hungary's objections, do not qualify under market rules excluding group declarations like the Coalition of the Willing. Spain's March 18 defense production agreements and €1 billion 2026 aid package emphasize joint manufacturing over binding guarantees. U.S.-pushed ceasefire talks, with Zelenskyy disclosing March 25 demands for Donbas concessions, alongside European fiscal strains, signal a pivot to collective post-conflict arrangements, dimming prospects for new bilateral deals.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

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На сегодняшний день «Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня? » сгенерировал общий объём торгов $98.3K с момента запуска рынка Dec 28, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

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Текущий фаворит для «Европейская страна согласна дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня? » — «Европейская страна согласилась дать Украине гарантию безопасности до 30 июня?» с 12%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 12%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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