Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Gustavo Petro remaining in office past June 30, 2026 (98% No), but assigns a 96% probability of ceasing to be president prematurely by December 31 via resignation, impeachment, detention, or incapacity—excluding normal term end on August 7. This reflects heightened pressures from a March 20 U.S. revelation naming Petro a DEA "priority target" in probes alleging ties to drug traffickers like the Sinaloa cartel, based on informant tips since 2022. His Pacto Histórico coalition won Colombia's March 9 congressional election but lacks a majority, stalling reforms on health and labor amid public backlash over a child's death tied to insurer delays. Petro, constitutionally barred from re-election, faces the May 31 presidential vote where endorsed successor Iván Cepeda leads polls; no active impeachment exists, but U.S. tensions and scandals could escalate in the lame-duck phase.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоГуставо Петро уходит с поста лидера Колумбии к...?
Густаво Петро уходит с поста лидера Колумбии к...?
$152,975 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня
2%
31 декабря
94%
$152,975 Объем
30 июня
$121,596 Объем
2%
31 декабря
$31,379 Объем
94%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Gustavo Petro remaining in office past June 30, 2026 (98% No), but assigns a 96% probability of ceasing to be president prematurely by December 31 via resignation, impeachment, detention, or incapacity—excluding normal term end on August 7. This reflects heightened pressures from a March 20 U.S. revelation naming Petro a DEA "priority target" in probes alleging ties to drug traffickers like the Sinaloa cartel, based on informant tips since 2022. His Pacto Histórico coalition won Colombia's March 9 congressional election but lacks a majority, stalling reforms on health and labor amid public backlash over a child's death tied to insurer delays. Petro, constitutionally barred from re-election, faces the May 31 presidential vote where endorsed successor Iván Cepeda leads polls; no active impeachment exists, but U.S. tensions and scandals could escalate in the lame-duck phase.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 4, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
Объем
$152,975Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Gustavo Petro remaining in office past June 30, 2026 (98% No), but assigns a 96% probability of ceasing to be president prematurely by December 31 via resignation, impeachment, detention, or incapacity—excluding normal term end on August 7. This reflects heightened pressures from a March 20 U.S. revelation naming Petro a DEA "priority target" in probes alleging ties to drug traffickers like the Sinaloa cartel, based on informant tips since 2022. His Pacto Histórico coalition won Colombia's March 9 congressional election but lacks a majority, stalling reforms on health and labor amid public backlash over a child's death tied to insurer delays. Petro, constitutionally barred from re-election, faces the May 31 presidential vote where endorsed successor Iván Cepeda leads polls; no active impeachment exists, but U.S. tensions and scandals could escalate in the lame-duck phase.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gustavo Petro ceases to be President of Colombia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Gustavo Petro's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gustavo Petro and the government of Colombia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$152,975Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 4, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Gustavo Petro remaining in office past June 30, 2026 (98% No), but assigns a 96% probability of ceasing to be president prematurely by December 31 via resignation, impeachment, detention, or incapacity—excluding normal term end on August 7. This reflects heightened pressures from a March 20 U.S. revelation naming Petro a DEA "priority target" in probes alleging ties to drug traffickers like the Sinaloa cartel, based on informant tips since 2022. His Pacto Histórico coalition won Colombia's March 9 congressional election but lacks a majority, stalling reforms on health and labor amid public backlash over a child's death tied to insurer delays. Petro, constitutionally barred from re-election, faces the May 31 presidential vote where endorsed successor Iván Cepeda leads polls; no active impeachment exists, but U.S. tensions and scandals could escalate in the lame-duck phase.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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