Trader consensus prices a near-certain 99.9% chance against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran war escalation. Talks paused on March 19 per Russian media, with no breakthroughs despite earlier progress on security guarantees and demilitarized zones reported in early March. Irreconcilable demands persist, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donetsk and beyond, while both sides claim front-line advances. With the deadline tomorrow and no official announcements of imminent agreement, military actions continue unabated. Only a sudden diplomatic summit or late-breaking concession could shift odds, though barriers like mutual distrust and ongoing hostilities make this improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоУкраина подпишет мирное соглашение с Россией до 31 марта?
Украина подпишет мирное соглашение с Россией до 31 марта?
Да
$385,091 Объем
$385,091 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Да
$385,091 Объем
$385,091 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a near-certain 99.9% chance against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran war escalation. Talks paused on March 19 per Russian media, with no breakthroughs despite earlier progress on security guarantees and demilitarized zones reported in early March. Irreconcilable demands persist, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donetsk and beyond, while both sides claim front-line advances. With the deadline tomorrow and no official announcements of imminent agreement, military actions continue unabated. Only a sudden diplomatic summit or late-breaking concession could shift odds, though barriers like mutual distrust and ongoing hostilities make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Объем
$385,091Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices a near-certain 99.9% chance against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran war escalation. Talks paused on March 19 per Russian media, with no breakthroughs despite earlier progress on security guarantees and demilitarized zones reported in early March. Irreconcilable demands persist, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donetsk and beyond, while both sides claim front-line advances. With the deadline tomorrow and no official announcements of imminent agreement, military actions continue unabated. Only a sudden diplomatic summit or late-breaking concession could shift odds, though barriers like mutual distrust and ongoing hostilities make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$385,091Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a near-certain 99.9% chance against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, reflecting stalled US-brokered negotiations amid Russia's spring offensive and distractions from the Iran war escalation. Talks paused on March 19 per Russian media, with no breakthroughs despite earlier progress on security guarantees and demilitarized zones reported in early March. Irreconcilable demands persist, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donetsk and beyond, while both sides claim front-line advances. With the deadline tomorrow and no official announcements of imminent agreement, military actions continue unabated. Only a sudden diplomatic summit or late-breaking concession could shift odds, though barriers like mutual distrust and ongoing hostilities make this improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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