Tensions between Iran and the US escalated in mid-March 2024 after American airstrikes targeted Houthi militants in Yemen, whom Tehran backs as proxies attacking Red Sea shipping. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, warned of retaliation against US bases in Iraq and Syria if strikes continued, while Kataib Hezbollah—a pro-Iran militia—threatened attacks on American troops. No direct Iranian strike has materialized by March 31, reflecting Tehran's strategy of asymmetric proxy warfare to deter escalation without risking full-scale conflict. Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon add pressure, but diplomatic channels via Oman and Qatar persist. Traders watch for any Houthi-US clashes or Israeli actions in Syria that could prompt Iranian response before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЧто ударит по Ирану до 31 марта?
Что ударит по Ирану до 31 марта?
$432,653 Объем
Димона (Ядерный исследовательский центр имени Шимона Переса в Негеве)
2%
Бурдж-Халифа
7%
Месторождение Гавар
13%
Месторождение Сафания
9%
Нефтеперерабатывающий завод Абкаик
16%
НПЗ Аль-Зур
12%
Leviathan Field
9%
Khurais Field
12%
Рас-Танура
14%
East–West Pipeline
13%
Месторождение/перерабатывающий комплекс Хабшан
12%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
11%
$432,653 Объем
Димона (Ядерный исследовательский центр имени Шимона Переса в Негеве)
2%
Бурдж-Халифа
7%
Месторождение Гавар
13%
Месторождение Сафания
9%
Нефтеперерабатывающий завод Абкаик
16%
НПЗ Аль-Зур
12%
Leviathan Field
9%
Khurais Field
12%
Рас-Танура
14%
East–West Pipeline
13%
Месторождение/перерабатывающий комплекс Хабшан
12%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
11%
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 7:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Iran and the US escalated in mid-March 2024 after American airstrikes targeted Houthi militants in Yemen, whom Tehran backs as proxies attacking Red Sea shipping. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, warned of retaliation against US bases in Iraq and Syria if strikes continued, while Kataib Hezbollah—a pro-Iran militia—threatened attacks on American troops. No direct Iranian strike has materialized by March 31, reflecting Tehran's strategy of asymmetric proxy warfare to deter escalation without risking full-scale conflict. Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon add pressure, but diplomatic channels via Oman and Qatar persist. Traders watch for any Houthi-US clashes or Israeli actions in Syria that could prompt Iranian response before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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