Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 59% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor, including a March inspector general probe into top aides' alleged misconduct that prompted resignations from her chief of staff, deputy, and bodyguard amid claims of fake taxpayer-funded trips, an extramarital affair, and her husband's barring over staff assault allegations. A fourth staffer departed last week, intensifying pressure amid back-to-back controversies since February. With no similar acute crises for others like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (8.1%) or DNI Tulsi Gabbard (7.8%), and historically low second-term cabinet turnover so far, "None before 2027" trails at 12.6% despite prior exits like Homeland Security's Kristi Noem. Upcoming IG findings could accelerate a resignation or dismissal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЛори Чавес-ДеРемер 59%
Никто до 2027 года 12.6%
Пит Хегсет 8.3%
Тулси Габбард 7.6%
$2,544,322 Объем
$2,544,322 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Лори Чавес-ДеРемер
59%
Никто до 2027 года
13%
Пит Хегсет
8%
Тулси Габбард
8%
Говард Латник
3%
Пэм Бонди
1%
Скотт Тёрнер
1%
Даг Бёргум
1%
Сьюзи Уайлс
1%
Келли Лёфлер
1%
Дж.Д. Вэнс
1%
Шон Даффи
1%
Брук Роллинс
1%
Марко Рубио
1%
Ли Зелдин
1%
Дуг Коллинз
1%
Крис Райт
1%
Рассел Т. Воут
1%
Джон Рэтклифф
<1%
Джеймисон Грир
<1%
Майк Уолтц
<1%
Скотт Бессент
<1%
Роберт Ф. Кеннеди мл.
<1%
Линда Макмахон
<1%
Лори Чавес-ДеРемер 59%
Никто до 2027 года 12.6%
Пит Хегсет 8.3%
Тулси Габбард 7.6%
$2,544,322 Объем
$2,544,322 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Лори Чавес-ДеРемер
$75,613 Объем
59%
Никто до 2027 года
$760,293 Объем
13%
Пит Хегсет
$677,283 Объем
8%
Тулси Габбард
$727,756 Объем
8%
Говард Латник
$26,610 Объем
3%
Пэм Бонди
$4,491 Объем
1%
Скотт Тёрнер
$5,825 Объем
1%
Даг Бёргум
$6,428 Объем
1%
Сьюзи Уайлс
$5,225 Объем
1%
Келли Лёфлер
$4,124 Объем
1%
Дж.Д. Вэнс
$7,580 Объем
1%
Шон Даффи
$67,634 Объем
1%
Брук Роллинс
$7,133 Объем
1%
Марко Рубио
$50,934 Объем
1%
Ли Зелдин
$71,392 Объем
1%
Дуг Коллинз
$3,691 Объем
1%
Крис Райт
$4,242 Объем
1%
Рассел Т. Воут
$4,509 Объем
1%
Джон Рэтклифф
$4,510 Объем
<1%
Джеймисон Грир
$5,210 Объем
<1%
Майк Уолтц
$4,968 Объем
<1%
Скотт Бессент
$4,736 Объем
<1%
Роберт Ф. Кеннеди мл.
$3,729 Объем
<1%
Линда Макмахон
$10,407 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 59% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor, including a March inspector general probe into top aides' alleged misconduct that prompted resignations from her chief of staff, deputy, and bodyguard amid claims of fake taxpayer-funded trips, an extramarital affair, and her husband's barring over staff assault allegations. A fourth staffer departed last week, intensifying pressure amid back-to-back controversies since February. With no similar acute crises for others like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (8.1%) or DNI Tulsi Gabbard (7.8%), and historically low second-term cabinet turnover so far, "None before 2027" trails at 12.6% despite prior exits like Homeland Security's Kristi Noem. Upcoming IG findings could accelerate a resignation or dismissal.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Объем
$2,544,322Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 59% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor, including a March inspector general probe into top aides' alleged misconduct that prompted resignations from her chief of staff, deputy, and bodyguard amid claims of fake taxpayer-funded trips, an extramarital affair, and her husband's barring over staff assault allegations. A fourth staffer departed last week, intensifying pressure amid back-to-back controversies since February. With no similar acute crises for others like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (8.1%) or DNI Tulsi Gabbard (7.8%), and historically low second-term cabinet turnover so far, "None before 2027" trails at 12.6% despite prior exits like Homeland Security's Kristi Noem. Upcoming IG findings could accelerate a resignation or dismissal.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Объем
$2,544,322Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 59% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by a cascade of recent scandals at the Department of Labor, including a March inspector general probe into top aides' alleged misconduct that prompted resignations from her chief of staff, deputy, and bodyguard amid claims of fake taxpayer-funded trips, an extramarital affair, and her husband's barring over staff assault allegations. A fourth staffer departed last week, intensifying pressure amid back-to-back controversies since February. With no similar acute crises for others like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (8.1%) or DNI Tulsi Gabbard (7.8%), and historically low second-term cabinet turnover so far, "None before 2027" trails at 12.6% despite prior exits like Homeland Security's Kristi Noem. Upcoming IG findings could accelerate a resignation or dismissal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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