The Socialist Party's July 2026 member vote for a closed primary in October—rather than a broader left-wing contest—has shaped trader positioning ahead of the 2027 presidential nomination. Internal divisions over alliance strategy, evident in earlier clashes between First Secretary Olivier Faure and National Assembly group leader Boris Vallaud, continue to influence assessments of viable paths. Raphaël Glucksmann's stronger polling among center-left figures and declarations by Ségolène Royal and Philippe Brun add competitive layers, while figures such as François Hollande and Bernard Cazeneuve weigh options outside the process. With no dominant candidate and the primary vote still months away, these procedural and factional dynamics sustain closely matched implied probabilities across leading contenders.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБорис Валло 40%
Рафаэль Глюксман 37%
Оливье Фор 11%
Франсуа Олланд 6.4%
$14,294 Объем
$14,294 Объем
Борис Валло
40%
Рафаэль Глюксман
37%
Оливье Фор
11%
Франсуа Олланд
6%
Сеголен Руаяль
6%
Филипп Брун
5%
Бернар Казнёв
4%
Кароль Дельга
4%
Карим Буамран
3%
Жером Гедж
1%
Борис Валло 40%
Рафаэль Глюксман 37%
Оливье Фор 11%
Франсуа Олланд 6.4%
$14,294 Объем
$14,294 Объем
Борис Валло
40%
Рафаэль Глюксман
37%
Оливье Фор
11%
Франсуа Олланд
6%
Сеголен Руаяль
6%
Филипп Брун
5%
Бернар Казнёв
4%
Кароль Дельга
4%
Карим Буамран
3%
Жером Гедж
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.
If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Jul 13, 2026, 7:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.
If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Socialist Party's July 2026 member vote for a closed primary in October—rather than a broader left-wing contest—has shaped trader positioning ahead of the 2027 presidential nomination. Internal divisions over alliance strategy, evident in earlier clashes between First Secretary Olivier Faure and National Assembly group leader Boris Vallaud, continue to influence assessments of viable paths. Raphaël Glucksmann's stronger polling among center-left figures and declarations by Ségolène Royal and Philippe Brun add competitive layers, while figures such as François Hollande and Bernard Cazeneuve weigh options outside the process. With no dominant candidate and the primary vote still months away, these procedural and factional dynamics sustain closely matched implied probabilities across leading contenders.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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