Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.4% odds for "No" on Congress passing any tariffs by March 31, 2025, driven primarily by the absence of pending legislation and President Trump's reliance on executive authorities like Section 232 and IEEPA for unilateral tariff imposition, bypassing legislative hurdles. The lame-duck session concluded without tariff bills, and the new Republican-controlled Congress faces a crowded agenda including debt ceiling talks and budget reconciliation, leaving scant bandwidth for trade measures. Tail risks include a sudden geopolitical crisis prompting emergency bipartisan action or a specific funding bill tying tariffs to enforcement, though these remain low-probability outliers amid entrenched political gridlock.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$24,295 Объем
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Mar 31, 2026
Да
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Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ET
Объем
$24,295Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$24,295Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.4% odds for "No" on Congress passing any tariffs by March 31, 2025, driven primarily by the absence of pending legislation and President Trump's reliance on executive authorities like Section 232 and IEEPA for unilateral tariff imposition, bypassing legislative hurdles. The lame-duck session concluded without tariff bills, and the new Republican-controlled Congress faces a crowded agenda including debt ceiling talks and budget reconciliation, leaving scant bandwidth for trade measures. Tail risks include a sudden geopolitical crisis prompting emergency bipartisan action or a specific funding bill tying tariffs to enforcement, though these remain low-probability outliers amid entrenched political gridlock.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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