Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 72% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of the market's strict criteria—Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale) US landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake (USGS data), VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or 10kt+ meteor strike—and the absence of any such events through mid-April 2026 despite routine severe weather like tornado outbreaks and floods. Early Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict 13 named storms and only two major hurricanes, below hyperactive levels that favor Cat 5 US impacts, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no elevated risks. Upcoming National Hurricane Center outlooks and USGS reports could shift odds if precursors emerge, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties in these tail-risk phenomena.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$204,180 Объем
$204,180 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$204,180 Объем
$204,180 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 72% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of the market's strict criteria—Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale) US landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake (USGS data), VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or 10kt+ meteor strike—and the absence of any such events through mid-April 2026 despite routine severe weather like tornado outbreaks and floods. Early Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict 13 named storms and only two major hurricanes, below hyperactive levels that favor Cat 5 US impacts, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no elevated risks. Upcoming National Hurricane Center outlooks and USGS reports could shift odds if precursors emerge, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties in these tail-risk phenomena.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$204,180Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 72% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of the market's strict criteria—Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale) US landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake (USGS data), VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or 10kt+ meteor strike—and the absence of any such events through mid-April 2026 despite routine severe weather like tornado outbreaks and floods. Early Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict 13 named storms and only two major hurricanes, below hyperactive levels that favor Cat 5 US impacts, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no elevated risks. Upcoming National Hurricane Center outlooks and USGS reports could shift odds if precursors emerge, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties in these tail-risk phenomena.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$204,180Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 72% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of the market's strict criteria—Category 5 hurricane (Saffir-Simpson scale) US landfall, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake (USGS data), VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, or 10kt+ meteor strike—and the absence of any such events through mid-April 2026 despite routine severe weather like tornado outbreaks and floods. Early Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University predict 13 named storms and only two major hurricanes, below hyperactive levels that favor Cat 5 US impacts, while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no elevated risks. Upcoming National Hurricane Center outlooks and USGS reports could shift odds if precursors emerge, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainties in these tail-risk phenomena.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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