Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by a quiet first quarter devoid of qualifying extreme events per USGS and NOAA monitoring. No magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, Category 5 U.S. landfall hurricanes, or major meteor impacts (10kt+) have occurred, despite localized severe thunderstorms, tornado outbreaks in March, and a winter bomb cyclone in January. Historical baselines underscore rarity—USGS records ~1 M8.5+ quake every 5–10 years globally, while Category 5 U.S. landfalls average once per decade. Neutral ENSO conditions forecast by NOAA signal average Atlantic hurricane activity ahead, with June outlooks key for potential shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
$191,177 Объем
$191,177 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$191,177 Объем
$191,177 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by a quiet first quarter devoid of qualifying extreme events per USGS and NOAA monitoring. No magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, Category 5 U.S. landfall hurricanes, or major meteor impacts (10kt+) have occurred, despite localized severe thunderstorms, tornado outbreaks in March, and a winter bomb cyclone in January. Historical baselines underscore rarity—USGS records ~1 M8.5+ quake every 5–10 years globally, while Category 5 U.S. landfalls average once per decade. Neutral ENSO conditions forecast by NOAA signal average Atlantic hurricane activity ahead, with June outlooks key for potential shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$191,177Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by a quiet first quarter devoid of qualifying extreme events per USGS and NOAA monitoring. No magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, Category 5 U.S. landfall hurricanes, or major meteor impacts (10kt+) have occurred, despite localized severe thunderstorms, tornado outbreaks in March, and a winter bomb cyclone in January. Historical baselines underscore rarity—USGS records ~1 M8.5+ quake every 5–10 years globally, while Category 5 U.S. landfalls average once per decade. Neutral ENSO conditions forecast by NOAA signal average Atlantic hurricane activity ahead, with June outlooks key for potential shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$191,177Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 70.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by a quiet first quarter devoid of qualifying extreme events per USGS and NOAA monitoring. No magnitude 8.5+ earthquakes, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, Category 5 U.S. landfall hurricanes, or major meteor impacts (10kt+) have occurred, despite localized severe thunderstorms, tornado outbreaks in March, and a winter bomb cyclone in January. Historical baselines underscore rarity—USGS records ~1 M8.5+ quake every 5–10 years globally, while Category 5 U.S. landfalls average once per decade. Neutral ENSO conditions forecast by NOAA signal average Atlantic hurricane activity ahead, with June outlooks key for potential shifts amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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