Traders' slight edge toward "No" at 52.5% implied probability for a major space weather event from March 29 to April 4 reflects NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest forecasts showing low solar activity, with only a 45% chance of minor R1-R2 radio blackouts early next week and no predicted geomagnetic storms (G1 or greater). Recent developments include a G3 strong geomagnetic storm on March 22 from a high-speed solar wind stream, but current conditions are quiet—solar wind at 386 km/s, no active coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—and active regions like AR4403 have calmed. Key uncertainties stem from Solar Cycle 25's peak dynamics, where emerging sunspot regions could produce unexpected M-class flares or Earth-directed CMEs, potentially elevating Kp index to G3+ levels amid unsettled periods forecasted for March 30 and April 2. Watch daily SWPC 3-day geomagnetic outlooks and SOHO/LASCO coronagraph updates for CME signatures that could decisively shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоMajor Space Weather event this week? (March 29 - April 4)
Major Space Weather event this week? (March 29 - April 4)
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 29, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Traders' slight edge toward "No" at 52.5% implied probability for a major space weather event from March 29 to April 4 reflects NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest forecasts showing low solar activity, with only a 45% chance of minor R1-R2 radio blackouts early next week and no predicted geomagnetic storms (G1 or greater). Recent developments include a G3 strong geomagnetic storm on March 22 from a high-speed solar wind stream, but current conditions are quiet—solar wind at 386 km/s, no active coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—and active regions like AR4403 have calmed. Key uncertainties stem from Solar Cycle 25's peak dynamics, where emerging sunspot regions could produce unexpected M-class flares or Earth-directed CMEs, potentially elevating Kp index to G3+ levels amid unsettled periods forecasted for March 30 and April 2. Watch daily SWPC 3-day geomagnetic outlooks and SOHO/LASCO coronagraph updates for CME signatures that could decisively shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 29, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 29, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Traders' slight edge toward "No" at 52.5% implied probability for a major space weather event from March 29 to April 4 reflects NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest forecasts showing low solar activity, with only a 45% chance of minor R1-R2 radio blackouts early next week and no predicted geomagnetic storms (G1 or greater). Recent developments include a G3 strong geomagnetic storm on March 22 from a high-speed solar wind stream, but current conditions are quiet—solar wind at 386 km/s, no active coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—and active regions like AR4403 have calmed. Key uncertainties stem from Solar Cycle 25's peak dynamics, where emerging sunspot regions could produce unexpected M-class flares or Earth-directed CMEs, potentially elevating Kp index to G3+ levels amid unsettled periods forecasted for March 30 and April 2. Watch daily SWPC 3-day geomagnetic outlooks and SOHO/LASCO coronagraph updates for CME signatures that could decisively shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a geomagnetic storm, solar radiation storm, or radio blackout with a severity level of 3 or greater occurs between March 29, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market will resolve immediately upon the occurrence of a qualifying event. Any later revisions or corrections will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center under the heading marked "Current Space Weather Conditions". (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#)
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Apr 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' slight edge toward "No" at 52.5% implied probability for a major space weather event from March 29 to April 4 reflects NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's latest forecasts showing low solar activity, with only a 45% chance of minor R1-R2 radio blackouts early next week and no predicted geomagnetic storms (G1 or greater). Recent developments include a G3 strong geomagnetic storm on March 22 from a high-speed solar wind stream, but current conditions are quiet—solar wind at 386 km/s, no active coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—and active regions like AR4403 have calmed. Key uncertainties stem from Solar Cycle 25's peak dynamics, where emerging sunspot regions could produce unexpected M-class flares or Earth-directed CMEs, potentially elevating Kp index to G3+ levels amid unsettled periods forecasted for March 30 and April 2. Watch daily SWPC 3-day geomagnetic outlooks and SOHO/LASCO coronagraph updates for CME signatures that could decisively shift odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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