Traders heavily favor an 80–85 flu hospitalization rate for Week 12, 2026 (51.5% implied probability), reflecting CDC FluSurv-NET historical data showing cumulative end-of-season rates in this range during moderate-severity winters, combined with the current 2024–2025 season's below-average hospitalizations—now at 11.2 per 100,000 population as of Week 10 amid declining activity and strong vaccine match against dominant H1N1 and H3N2 strains. Recent CDC updates confirm low transmission dynamics, with outpatient ILI at 2.5%, supporting trader consensus for a typical late-March fade rather than extremes. Key uncertainties include 2025–2026 vaccine strain selection (due September) and vaccination uptake; next FluView report expected Friday could refine model consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
90–95 19%
95+ 10.4%
85–90 5.5%
<75 2.7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<75
3%
75–80
2%
80–85
55%
85–90
26%
90–95
19%
95+
10%
90–95 19%
95+ 10.4%
85–90 5.5%
<75 2.7%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<75
$145 Объем
3%
75–80
$130 Объем
2%
80–85
$327 Объем
55%
85–90
$158 Объем
26%
90–95
$2,983 Объем
19%
95+
$110 Объем
10%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Traders heavily favor an 80–85 flu hospitalization rate for Week 12, 2026 (51.5% implied probability), reflecting CDC FluSurv-NET historical data showing cumulative end-of-season rates in this range during moderate-severity winters, combined with the current 2024–2025 season's below-average hospitalizations—now at 11.2 per 100,000 population as of Week 10 amid declining activity and strong vaccine match against dominant H1N1 and H3N2 strains. Recent CDC updates confirm low transmission dynamics, with outpatient ILI at 2.5%, supporting trader consensus for a typical late-March fade rather than extremes. Key uncertainties include 2025–2026 vaccine strain selection (due September) and vaccination uptake; next FluView report expected Friday could refine model consensus.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Открытие рынка: Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
Объем
$3,855Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Traders heavily favor an 80–85 flu hospitalization rate for Week 12, 2026 (51.5% implied probability), reflecting CDC FluSurv-NET historical data showing cumulative end-of-season rates in this range during moderate-severity winters, combined with the current 2024–2025 season's below-average hospitalizations—now at 11.2 per 100,000 population as of Week 10 amid declining activity and strong vaccine match against dominant H1N1 and H3N2 strains. Recent CDC updates confirm low transmission dynamics, with outpatient ILI at 2.5%, supporting trader consensus for a typical late-March fade rather than extremes. Key uncertainties include 2025–2026 vaccine strain selection (due September) and vaccination uptake; next FluView report expected Friday could refine model consensus.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Объем
$3,855Дата окончания
Apr 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders heavily favor an 80–85 flu hospitalization rate for Week 12, 2026 (51.5% implied probability), reflecting CDC FluSurv-NET historical data showing cumulative end-of-season rates in this range during moderate-severity winters, combined with the current 2024–2025 season's below-average hospitalizations—now at 11.2 per 100,000 population as of Week 10 amid declining activity and strong vaccine match against dominant H1N1 and H3N2 strains. Recent CDC updates confirm low transmission dynamics, with outpatient ILI at 2.5%, supporting trader consensus for a typical late-March fade rather than extremes. Key uncertainties include 2025–2026 vaccine strain selection (due September) and vaccination uptake; next FluView report expected Friday could refine model consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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