Polymarket traders assign an 88% implied probability to "No" for a new pandemic in 2026, driven by the absence of novel pathogens exhibiting sustained human-to-human transmission, as confirmed by ongoing WHO and CDC global surveillance. Recent developments, including isolated U.S. H5N1 avian influenza cases linked to dairy cattle exposure— all mild with no evidence of efficient spread—and containment of mpox clade Ib in Africa, reinforce this consensus without triggering epidemic alerts. Enhanced post-COVID preparedness, such as rapid genomic sequencing and mRNA vaccine platforms, mitigates risks from known zoonoses. Historical infrequency of pandemics, with none since 2020, underpins the odds, though traders watch for quarterly WHO epidemiological updates and unexpected spillovers that could alter trajectories.