Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability against any Category 5 hurricane—winds exceeding 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the event's extreme historical rarity and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. Only four such storms have hit the continental U.S. since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), with none since Hurricane Michael despite heightened activity: the 2025 season produced three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), but all curved away or weakened before U.S. approach, underscoring steering patterns favoring open ocean tracks. Current conditions feature a potential El Niño emergence (62% NOAA chance by summer), which boosts wind shear and suppresses intensification, alongside average 2026 seasonal outlooks (11-16 named storms per AccuWeather). NOAA's full forecast in May and June 1 season start could shift sentiment amid warm sea surface temperatures enabling rapid intensification risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоБудет ли какой-либо ураган категории 5 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Будет ли какой-либо ураган категории 5 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Да
$107,255 Объем
$107,255 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$107,255 Объем
$107,255 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability against any Category 5 hurricane—winds exceeding 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the event's extreme historical rarity and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. Only four such storms have hit the continental U.S. since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), with none since Hurricane Michael despite heightened activity: the 2025 season produced three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), but all curved away or weakened before U.S. approach, underscoring steering patterns favoring open ocean tracks. Current conditions feature a potential El Niño emergence (62% NOAA chance by summer), which boosts wind shear and suppresses intensification, alongside average 2026 seasonal outlooks (11-16 named storms per AccuWeather). NOAA's full forecast in May and June 1 season start could shift sentiment amid warm sea surface temperatures enabling rapid intensification risks.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Объем
$107,255Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability against any Category 5 hurricane—winds exceeding 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the event's extreme historical rarity and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. Only four such storms have hit the continental U.S. since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), with none since Hurricane Michael despite heightened activity: the 2025 season produced three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), but all curved away or weakened before U.S. approach, underscoring steering patterns favoring open ocean tracks. Current conditions feature a potential El Niño emergence (62% NOAA chance by summer), which boosts wind shear and suppresses intensification, alongside average 2026 seasonal outlooks (11-16 named storms per AccuWeather). NOAA's full forecast in May and June 1 season start could shift sentiment amid warm sea surface temperatures enabling rapid intensification risks.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Объем
$107,255Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84% implied probability against any Category 5 hurricane—winds exceeding 157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the event's extreme historical rarity and recent Atlantic basin dynamics. Only four such storms have hit the continental U.S. since 1851 (1935, 1969, 1992, 2018), with none since Hurricane Michael despite heightened activity: the 2025 season produced three Category 5s (Erin, Humberto, Melissa), but all curved away or weakened before U.S. approach, underscoring steering patterns favoring open ocean tracks. Current conditions feature a potential El Niño emergence (62% NOAA chance by summer), which boosts wind shear and suppresses intensification, alongside average 2026 seasonal outlooks (11-16 named storms per AccuWeather). NOAA's full forecast in May and June 1 season start could shift sentiment amid warm sea surface temperatures enabling rapid intensification risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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