Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in large volcanic eruptions—defined by the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, involving at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of ejecta—for 2026, with zero (37.5%) edging one (35.5%) amid a quiet start to the year. The Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program reports zero confirmed VEI ≥4 events through late March 2026, consistent with historical global averages of roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually based on records since 1750, following a Poisson-like distribution prone to year-to-year variability. Recent weekly reports highlight unrest at 22–26 volcanoes worldwide, including explosive phases at Semeru and Fuego, but none escalate to VEI ≥4 thresholds per USGS monitoring. Differentiating factors include the absence of clustered activity patterns or elevated seismic swarms signaling major events, though unmonitored remote or submarine systems like Axial Seamount pose outlier risks; traders await Smithsonian updates through December for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
Сколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
0 38%
1 37%
2 8.0%
3 3.7%
$638,313 Объем
$638,313 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
0
38%
1
37%
2
8%
3
4%
4
2%
5+
2%
0 38%
1 37%
2 8.0%
3 3.7%
$638,313 Объем
$638,313 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
0
$373,221 Объем
38%
1
$235,619 Объем
37%
2
$17,860 Объем
8%
3
$0 Объем
4%
4
$11,613 Объем
2%
5+
$0 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in large volcanic eruptions—defined by the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, involving at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of ejecta—for 2026, with zero (37.5%) edging one (35.5%) amid a quiet start to the year. The Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program reports zero confirmed VEI ≥4 events through late March 2026, consistent with historical global averages of roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually based on records since 1750, following a Poisson-like distribution prone to year-to-year variability. Recent weekly reports highlight unrest at 22–26 volcanoes worldwide, including explosive phases at Semeru and Fuego, but none escalate to VEI ≥4 thresholds per USGS monitoring. Differentiating factors include the absence of clustered activity patterns or elevated seismic swarms signaling major events, though unmonitored remote or submarine systems like Axial Seamount pose outlier risks; traders await Smithsonian updates through December for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Объем
$638,313Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2027Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in large volcanic eruptions—defined by the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, involving at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of ejecta—for 2026, with zero (37.5%) edging one (35.5%) amid a quiet start to the year. The Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program reports zero confirmed VEI ≥4 events through late March 2026, consistent with historical global averages of roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually based on records since 1750, following a Poisson-like distribution prone to year-to-year variability. Recent weekly reports highlight unrest at 22–26 volcanoes worldwide, including explosive phases at Semeru and Fuego, but none escalate to VEI ≥4 thresholds per USGS monitoring. Differentiating factors include the absence of clustered activity patterns or elevated seismic swarms signaling major events, though unmonitored remote or submarine systems like Axial Seamount pose outlier risks; traders await Smithsonian updates through December for resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Объем
$638,313Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2027Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in large volcanic eruptions—defined by the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, involving at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of ejecta—for 2026, with zero (37.5%) edging one (35.5%) amid a quiet start to the year. The Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program reports zero confirmed VEI ≥4 events through late March 2026, consistent with historical global averages of roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually based on records since 1750, following a Poisson-like distribution prone to year-to-year variability. Recent weekly reports highlight unrest at 22–26 volcanoes worldwide, including explosive phases at Semeru and Fuego, but none escalate to VEI ≥4 thresholds per USGS monitoring. Differentiating factors include the absence of clustered activity patterns or elevated seismic swarms signaling major events, though unmonitored remote or submarine systems like Axial Seamount pose outlier risks; traders await Smithsonian updates through December for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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