No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in the first half of 2026 according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data through March, supporting the market's strong preference for zero events. Large explosive eruptions remain statistically infrequent, with global averages of roughly one per year but wide natural variability driven by subduction zone dynamics and magma chamber pressurization. A notable submarine eruption at Titan Ridge in the Bismarck Sea, ongoing since early May, has produced plumes to 28,000 feet and extensive pumice rafts—the most significant explosive activity reported so far—yet awaits formal VEI assignment. Ongoing monitoring by agencies like USGS and PHIVOLCS shows mostly effusive or lower-intensity events at sites such as Kīlauea and Kanlaon, with no model consensus yet indicating imminent VEI 4+ activity through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
Сколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
0 64%
1 20%
2 4.6%
3 1.2%
$1,145,718 Объем
$1,145,718 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
64%
1
20%
2
5%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 64%
1 20%
2 4.6%
3 1.2%
$1,145,718 Объем
$1,145,718 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
0
$498,131 Объем
64%
1
$270,864 Объем
20%
2
$38,832 Объем
5%
3
$30,748 Объем
1%
4
$33,045 Объем
1%
5+
$274,098 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in the first half of 2026 according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data through March, supporting the market's strong preference for zero events. Large explosive eruptions remain statistically infrequent, with global averages of roughly one per year but wide natural variability driven by subduction zone dynamics and magma chamber pressurization. A notable submarine eruption at Titan Ridge in the Bismarck Sea, ongoing since early May, has produced plumes to 28,000 feet and extensive pumice rafts—the most significant explosive activity reported so far—yet awaits formal VEI assignment. Ongoing monitoring by agencies like USGS and PHIVOLCS shows mostly effusive or lower-intensity events at sites such as Kīlauea and Kanlaon, with no model consensus yet indicating imminent VEI 4+ activity through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Объем
$1,145,718Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in the first half of 2026 according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data through March, supporting the market's strong preference for zero events. Large explosive eruptions remain statistically infrequent, with global averages of roughly one per year but wide natural variability driven by subduction zone dynamics and magma chamber pressurization. A notable submarine eruption at Titan Ridge in the Bismarck Sea, ongoing since early May, has produced plumes to 28,000 feet and extensive pumice rafts—the most significant explosive activity reported so far—yet awaits formal VEI assignment. Ongoing monitoring by agencies like USGS and PHIVOLCS shows mostly effusive or lower-intensity events at sites such as Kīlauea and Kanlaon, with no model consensus yet indicating imminent VEI 4+ activity through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Объем
$1,145,718Дата окончания
31 мар. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in the first half of 2026 according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data through March, supporting the market's strong preference for zero events. Large explosive eruptions remain statistically infrequent, with global averages of roughly one per year but wide natural variability driven by subduction zone dynamics and magma chamber pressurization. A notable submarine eruption at Titan Ridge in the Bismarck Sea, ongoing since early May, has produced plumes to 28,000 feet and extensive pumice rafts—the most significant explosive activity reported so far—yet awaits formal VEI assignment. Ongoing monitoring by agencies like USGS and PHIVOLCS shows mostly effusive or lower-intensity events at sites such as Kīlauea and Kanlaon, with no model consensus yet indicating imminent VEI 4+ activity through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы