Trader sentiment closely splits between zero (37.5%) and one (40.0%) large volcanic eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, requiring at least 0.1 km³ dense rock equivalent ejecta—in 2026, reflecting no such events through late March despite moderate global unrest. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report ongoing ash emissions from Sheveluch (plumes to 11 km) and Kanlaon, but none meet VEI ≥4 thresholds based on plume height, volume, or impact. Historical averages (~0.6 VEI ≥4 eruptions yearly) fuel this uncertainty, with clustering rare but possible along Ring of Fire fault lines; GVP weekly updates will monitor escalations through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
Сколько крупных извержений вулканов (VEI ≥4) в 2026 году?
1 40%
0 38%
2 8.9%
3 3.7%
$655,014 Объем
$655,014 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
0
38%
1
40%
2
9%
3
4%
4
2%
5+
2%
1 40%
0 38%
2 8.9%
3 3.7%
$655,014 Объем
$655,014 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
0
$373,223 Объем
38%
1
$235,626 Объем
40%
2
$17,862 Объем
9%
3
$5,851 Объем
4%
4
$11,615 Объем
2%
5+
$10,836 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment closely splits between zero (37.5%) and one (40.0%) large volcanic eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, requiring at least 0.1 km³ dense rock equivalent ejecta—in 2026, reflecting no such events through late March despite moderate global unrest. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report ongoing ash emissions from Sheveluch (plumes to 11 km) and Kanlaon, but none meet VEI ≥4 thresholds based on plume height, volume, or impact. Historical averages (~0.6 VEI ≥4 eruptions yearly) fuel this uncertainty, with clustering rare but possible along Ring of Fire fault lines; GVP weekly updates will monitor escalations through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Объем
$655,014Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2027Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment closely splits between zero (37.5%) and one (40.0%) large volcanic eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, requiring at least 0.1 km³ dense rock equivalent ejecta—in 2026, reflecting no such events through late March despite moderate global unrest. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report ongoing ash emissions from Sheveluch (plumes to 11 km) and Kanlaon, but none meet VEI ≥4 thresholds based on plume height, volume, or impact. Historical averages (~0.6 VEI ≥4 eruptions yearly) fuel this uncertainty, with clustering rare but possible along Ring of Fire fault lines; GVP weekly updates will monitor escalations through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Объем
$655,014Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2027Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment closely splits between zero (37.5%) and one (40.0%) large volcanic eruptions—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4, requiring at least 0.1 km³ dense rock equivalent ejecta—in 2026, reflecting no such events through late March despite moderate global unrest. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report ongoing ash emissions from Sheveluch (plumes to 11 km) and Kanlaon, but none meet VEI ≥4 thresholds based on plume height, volume, or impact. Historical averages (~0.6 VEI ≥4 eruptions yearly) fuel this uncertainty, with clustering rare but possible along Ring of Fire fault lines; GVP weekly updates will monitor escalations through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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