Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" warning by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's strict criteria for this highest alert—reserved for extreme risks of life-threatening disease transmission, such as uncontrolled Ebola or high-fatality pathogens with sustained spread among unvaccinated travelers. Currently, no Level 4 notices exist, with recent upgrades limited to Level 2 enhanced precautions for global polio (March 9, affecting 30+ countries), clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26), meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), and chikungunya outbreaks. Sporadic H5N1 bird flu human cases remain contained without human-to-human transmission signals per CDC surveillance, while vaccination coverage mitigates polio and measles risks. Ongoing epidemiological monitoring by CDC and WHO shows no trajectories toward Level 4 thresholds, though unexpected escalations could shift odds ahead of year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCDC выпустит предупреждение 4-го уровня до 31 декабря?
CDC выпустит предупреждение 4-го уровня до 31 декабря?
Да
$69,973 Объем
$69,973 Объем
Да
$69,973 Объем
$69,973 Объем
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" warning by December 31, 2026, driven by the agency's strict criteria for this highest alert—reserved for extreme risks of life-threatening disease transmission, such as uncontrolled Ebola or high-fatality pathogens with sustained spread among unvaccinated travelers. Currently, no Level 4 notices exist, with recent upgrades limited to Level 2 enhanced precautions for global polio (March 9, affecting 30+ countries), clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia (January 26), meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), and chikungunya outbreaks. Sporadic H5N1 bird flu human cases remain contained without human-to-human transmission signals per CDC surveillance, while vaccination coverage mitigates polio and measles risks. Ongoing epidemiological monitoring by CDC and WHO shows no trajectories toward Level 4 thresholds, though unexpected escalations could shift odds ahead of year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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