Trader consensus leans heavily against the CDC issuing a new Level 4 "Do Not Travel" warning by December 31, with "No" shares at 88.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of acute, widespread outbreaks meeting the agency's high-risk criteria for life-threatening diseases like polio or measles. Active Level 4 notices remain confined to longstanding issues, such as Yemen's cholera epidemic and Afghanistan's measles surge, per CDC's latest travel health updates. Recent developments bolster this view: mpox alerts were downgraded to Level 2 in August amid declining U.S. cases; sporadic H5N1 avian flu infections in humans show no sustained transmission, with pasteurization neutralizing virus in milk supplies; and measles outbreaks, while concerning, fall short of warranting new travel bans. Ongoing surveillance by CDC and WHO shows no escalating threats justifying escalation before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоCDC выпустит предупреждение 4-го уровня до 31 декабря?
CDC выпустит предупреждение 4-го уровня до 31 декабря?
Да
$65,574 Объем
$65,574 Объем
Да
$65,574 Объем
$65,574 Объем
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus leans heavily against the CDC issuing a new Level 4 "Do Not Travel" warning by December 31, with "No" shares at 88.5% implied probability, driven by the absence of acute, widespread outbreaks meeting the agency's high-risk criteria for life-threatening diseases like polio or measles. Active Level 4 notices remain confined to longstanding issues, such as Yemen's cholera epidemic and Afghanistan's measles surge, per CDC's latest travel health updates. Recent developments bolster this view: mpox alerts were downgraded to Level 2 in August amid declining U.S. cases; sporadic H5N1 avian flu infections in humans show no sustained transmission, with pasteurization neutralizing virus in milk supplies; and measles outbreaks, while concerning, fall short of warranting new travel bans. Ongoing surveillance by CDC and WHO shows no escalating threats justifying escalation before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы