El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA in mid-June 2026 with Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +0.7°C and expected to intensify, represent the key near-term catalyst supporting the market’s leading 1.15–1.19°C bin. This developing event follows a transition from neutral conditions and adds to the underlying multi-decadal warming trend that placed 2025 as the third-warmest year on record at roughly 1.17–1.19°C above the 1951–1980 baseline. June anomalies typically lag peak El Niño forcing, yet model consensus and historical analogs during early El Niño phases favor temperatures in this narrow range over cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Official monthly releases from NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus in the coming weeks will provide the data that directly determines market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.8%
$13,876 Объем
$13,876 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.8%
$13,876 Объем
$13,876 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
<1.10ºC
$511 Объем
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,965 Объем
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
$466 Объем
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,574 Объем
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 Объем
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,612 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA in mid-June 2026 with Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +0.7°C and expected to intensify, represent the key near-term catalyst supporting the market’s leading 1.15–1.19°C bin. This developing event follows a transition from neutral conditions and adds to the underlying multi-decadal warming trend that placed 2025 as the third-warmest year on record at roughly 1.17–1.19°C above the 1951–1980 baseline. June anomalies typically lag peak El Niño forcing, yet model consensus and historical analogs during early El Niño phases favor temperatures in this narrow range over cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Official monthly releases from NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus in the coming weeks will provide the data that directly determines market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Объем
$13,876Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA in mid-June 2026 with Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +0.7°C and expected to intensify, represent the key near-term catalyst supporting the market’s leading 1.15–1.19°C bin. This developing event follows a transition from neutral conditions and adds to the underlying multi-decadal warming trend that placed 2025 as the third-warmest year on record at roughly 1.17–1.19°C above the 1951–1980 baseline. June anomalies typically lag peak El Niño forcing, yet model consensus and historical analogs during early El Niño phases favor temperatures in this narrow range over cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Official monthly releases from NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus in the coming weeks will provide the data that directly determines market resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$13,876Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA in mid-June 2026 with Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +0.7°C and expected to intensify, represent the key near-term catalyst supporting the market’s leading 1.15–1.19°C bin. This developing event follows a transition from neutral conditions and adds to the underlying multi-decadal warming trend that placed 2025 as the third-warmest year on record at roughly 1.17–1.19°C above the 1951–1980 baseline. June anomalies typically lag peak El Niño forcing, yet model consensus and historical analogs during early El Niño phases favor temperatures in this narrow range over cooler or significantly hotter outcomes. Official monthly releases from NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus in the coming weeks will provide the data that directly determines market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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