Russian forces have conducted limited infiltrations and claimed tactical gains near Novyi Donbas, a settlement southeast of Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast, as part of broader efforts to advance toward the fortress belt cities of Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk. At the current pace of roughly 2-3 square kilometers per day in the priority Donetsk sector, analysts assess that full consolidation of remaining Ukrainian-held territory would extend well beyond 2026, despite Kremlin deadlines for completing the capture of Donetsk Oblast by year-end. Ukrainian counterattacks have reclaimed positions in the Sloviansk direction and disrupted Russian attempts to hold ground, while intensified drone and artillery strikes continue on both sides. Markets reflect trader focus on whether ISW-assessed Russian control expands in the specific locale before resolution dates, amid seasonal weather shifts that could alter drone effectiveness and ground maneuver. Diplomatic contacts between Moscow and Washington add uncertainty to the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
$87,169 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
37%
$87,169 Vol.
October 31
$35,618 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.450545° N, 37.181493° E in Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Novyi Donbas: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas1.png
Novyi Donbas Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fsRaQXJ6vikXNKYu9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited infiltrations and claimed tactical gains near Novyi Donbas, a settlement southeast of Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast, as part of broader efforts to advance toward the fortress belt cities of Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk. At the current pace of roughly 2-3 square kilometers per day in the priority Donetsk sector, analysts assess that full consolidation of remaining Ukrainian-held territory would extend well beyond 2026, despite Kremlin deadlines for completing the capture of Donetsk Oblast by year-end. Ukrainian counterattacks have reclaimed positions in the Sloviansk direction and disrupted Russian attempts to hold ground, while intensified drone and artillery strikes continue on both sides. Markets reflect trader focus on whether ISW-assessed Russian control expands in the specific locale before resolution dates, amid seasonal weather shifts that could alter drone effectiveness and ground maneuver. Diplomatic contacts between Moscow and Washington add uncertainty to the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.450545° N, 37.181493° E in Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Novyi Donbas: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas1.png
Novyi Donbas Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fsRaQXJ6vikXNKYu9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Novyi Donbas: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas1.png
Novyi Donbas Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fsRaQXJ6vikXNKYu9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 3:10 PM ET
Volume
$87,169End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 3:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.450545° N, 37.181493° E in Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Novyi Donbas: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas1.png
Novyi Donbas Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fsRaQXJ6vikXNKYu9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited infiltrations and claimed tactical gains near Novyi Donbas, a settlement southeast of Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast, as part of broader efforts to advance toward the fortress belt cities of Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk. At the current pace of roughly 2-3 square kilometers per day in the priority Donetsk sector, analysts assess that full consolidation of remaining Ukrainian-held territory would extend well beyond 2026, despite Kremlin deadlines for completing the capture of Donetsk Oblast by year-end. Ukrainian counterattacks have reclaimed positions in the Sloviansk direction and disrupted Russian attempts to hold ground, while intensified drone and artillery strikes continue on both sides. Markets reflect trader focus on whether ISW-assessed Russian control expands in the specific locale before resolution dates, amid seasonal weather shifts that could alter drone effectiveness and ground maneuver. Diplomatic contacts between Moscow and Washington add uncertainty to the timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.450545° N, 37.181493° E in Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Novyi Donbas: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas1.png
Novyi Donbas Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fsRaQXJ6vikXNKYu9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location in Novyi Donbas: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas1.png
Novyi Donbas Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas2.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fsRaQXJ6vikXNKYu9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$87,169End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 3:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted limited infiltrations and claimed tactical gains near Novyi Donbas, a settlement southeast of Dobropillya in Donetsk Oblast, as part of broader efforts to advance toward the fortress belt cities of Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk, and Kramatorsk. At the current pace of roughly 2-3 square kilometers per day in the priority Donetsk sector, analysts assess that full consolidation of remaining Ukrainian-held territory would extend well beyond 2026, despite Kremlin deadlines for completing the capture of Donetsk Oblast by year-end. Ukrainian counterattacks have reclaimed positions in the Sloviansk direction and disrupted Russian attempts to hold ground, while intensified drone and artillery strikes continue on both sides. Markets reflect trader focus on whether ISW-assessed Russian control expands in the specific locale before resolution dates, amid seasonal weather shifts that could alter drone effectiveness and ground maneuver. Diplomatic contacts between Moscow and Washington add uncertainty to the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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