Amid escalating US-Iran conflict involving airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions, Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader on March 8 following his father Ali Khamenei's death, yet he has made no verified public appearance since, relying instead on written statements and archival state TV footage. Russian ambassador Levan Jagarian stated on March 31 that Khamenei remains in Iran but is avoiding public outings "for understandable reasons," likely security amid war risks, quashing rumors of injury or exile. Traders reflect this uncertainty with 24% implied probability for an appearance by April's end and 39% for May 31 as the consensus frontrunner, anticipating potential shifts from de-escalation talks or regime consolidation before June resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
$771,171 Vol.
April 30
25%
May 31
34%
$771,171 Vol.
April 30
25%
May 31
34%
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran conflict involving airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions, Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader on March 8 following his father Ali Khamenei's death, yet he has made no verified public appearance since, relying instead on written statements and archival state TV footage. Russian ambassador Levan Jagarian stated on March 31 that Khamenei remains in Iran but is avoiding public outings "for understandable reasons," likely security amid war risks, quashing rumors of injury or exile. Traders reflect this uncertainty with 24% implied probability for an appearance by April's end and 39% for May 31 as the consensus frontrunner, anticipating potential shifts from de-escalation talks or regime consolidation before June resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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