Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran’s supreme leadership role in March 2026 after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in February US-Israeli strikes. He has issued directives and met privately with officials, including a reported seven-hour session with President Masoud Pezeshkian and discussions with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in October 2026, yet no independently verified public appearance or visual record has occurred since the transition. Iranian diplomats and regime figures cite security threats and recent injuries as reasons for the low profile, while claiming he remains active in governance amid the ongoing conflict. These private-meeting accounts and absence of imagery form the main variables traders weigh when assessing the timing of any potential public appearance.