Mojtaba Khamenei has issued written statements and been referenced in official meetings since his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader following his father’s assassination, yet he has made no verified public appearances, videos, or photographs in the ensuing six months amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict. Iranian authorities attribute the absence to heightened security measures, while releasing positive family descriptions and older footage to address speculation over his health or capacity to govern. Traders assess low near-term odds of an appearance because the pattern of seclusion has persisted through major events such as the July funeral ceremonies, with resolution hinging on authenticated visual evidence by the market deadline rather than statements alone. Scheduled religious or national observances through year-end could provide opportunities, though precedent favors continued low visibility.