Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 variants—particularly the "Thinking" mode—dominating the top three spots with superior Elo ratings around 1500+ in reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks as of mid-April. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent model releases and fine-tuning, outpacing Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (strong in multimodal benchmarks but trailing overall) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (solid but third-tier). With just 11 days left, traders see little room for rivals to displace Anthropic's lineup absent a surprise frontier model drop, though aggressive scaling announcements from OpenAI or Google could spark a late shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.3%
Google 2.4%
DeepSeek <1%
$107,462 Vol.
$107,462 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
5%
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
xAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.3%
Google 2.4%
DeepSeek <1%
$107,462 Vol.
$107,462 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$15,849 Vol.
91%
OpenAI
$9,258 Vol.
5%
$10,321 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$15,768 Vol.
1%
Meta
$4,905 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$4,872 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$4,253 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,692 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$6,027 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$5,232 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$4,401 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,419 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$5,305 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$5,375 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$6,789 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 variants—particularly the "Thinking" mode—dominating the top three spots with superior Elo ratings around 1500+ in reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks as of mid-April. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent model releases and fine-tuning, outpacing Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (strong in multimodal benchmarks but trailing overall) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (solid but third-tier). With just 11 days left, traders see little room for rivals to displace Anthropic's lineup absent a surprise frontier model drop, though aggressive scaling announcements from OpenAI or Google could spark a late shift.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volume
$107,462End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 variants—particularly the "Thinking" mode—dominating the top three spots with superior Elo ratings around 1500+ in reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks as of mid-April. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent model releases and fine-tuning, outpacing Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (strong in multimodal benchmarks but trailing overall) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (solid but third-tier). With just 11 days left, traders see little room for rivals to displace Anthropic's lineup absent a surprise frontier model drop, though aggressive scaling announcements from OpenAI or Google could spark a late shift.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$107,462End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to Anthropic holding the second-best AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 variants—particularly the "Thinking" mode—dominating the top three spots with superior Elo ratings around 1500+ in reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks as of mid-April. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent model releases and fine-tuning, outpacing Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (strong in multimodal benchmarks but trailing overall) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (solid but third-tier). With just 11 days left, traders see little room for rivals to displace Anthropic's lineup absent a surprise frontier model drop, though aggressive scaling announcements from OpenAI or Google could spark a late shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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