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Which company has the third best AI model end of April?

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Which company has the third best AI model end of April?

Anthropic 74%

Google 13%

OpenAI 5.5%

Meta 1.7%

Polymarket

$598,497 Vol.

Anthropic 74%

Google 13%

OpenAI 5.5%

Meta 1.7%

Polymarket

$598,497 Vol.

Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Anthropic

$142,402 Vol.

74%

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Google

$55,722 Vol.

13%

Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

OpenAI

$25,644 Vol.

6%

Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Meta

$13,337 Vol.

2%

Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

DeepSeek

$63,987 Vol.

<1%

Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

xAI

$103,522 Vol.

<1%

Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Baidu

$18,348 Vol.

<1%

Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Alibaba

$39,369 Vol.

<1%

Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

ByteDance

$27,600 Vol.

<1%

Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Amazon

$29,737 Vol.

<1%

Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Z.ai

$33,041 Vol.

<1%

Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Microsoft

$8,032 Vol.

<1%

Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Mistral

$13,009 Vol.

<1%

Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Moonshot

$12,137 Vol.

<1%

Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? icon

Meituan

$12,613 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7's dominant Elo scores in coding (1549) and agentic tasks, consistently ranking just behind Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (top overall at ~1492+ on related arenas) and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4. Recent April releases, including Anthropic's hybrid reasoning upgrades and strong blind-test battles, have solidified this positioning amid fierce competition from 20+ frontier models like MiniMax M2.7 and Qwen3.6. Google's secondary Gemini 3 Pro trails at 13% odds due to narrower multimodal leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex lags at 5.5% on reasoning benchmarks; final votes through April 30 could shift with last-minute evals.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$598,497
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 74% implied probability to Anthropic securing the third-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by April's end, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7's dominant Elo scores in coding (1549) and agentic tasks, consistently ranking just behind Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (top overall at ~1492+ on related arenas) and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4. Recent April releases, including Anthropic's hybrid reasoning upgrades and strong blind-test battles, have solidified this positioning amid fierce competition from 20+ frontier models like MiniMax M2.7 and Qwen3.6. Google's secondary Gemini 3 Pro trails at 13% odds due to narrower multimodal leads, while OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex lags at 5.5% on reasoning benchmarks; final votes through April 30 could shift with last-minute evals.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$598,497
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the third best AI model end of April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 74%, followed by "Google" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has the third best AI model end of April?" has generated $598.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has the third best AI model end of April?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the third best AI model end of April?" is "Anthropic" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the third best AI model end of April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.