Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by April 30, driven by its recent Claude Opus 4.7 release around April 16, which propelled variants to the top of the lmarena.ai Arena leaderboard—#1 (Opus 4.7 Thinking, 1505 Elo), #3 (Opus 4.7, 1503 Elo), and #4. This aggressive iteration on large language model capabilities outpaces rivals amid crowdsourced battles measuring real-world performance. Google's Gemini-3.1-Pro holds #2 at 1505 Elo (13% odds), bolstered by early April Gemma 4 open models, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high trails at #6 (1495 Elo, 5.5% odds). With 11 days to resolution, traders eye potential Gemini or GPT updates as catalysts for shifts, though Anthropic's momentum signals strong consensus for a podium finish.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 74%
Google 13%
OpenAI 5.5%
Meta 1.7%
$598,501 Vol.
$598,501 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
74%
13%
OpenAI
6%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
<1%
xAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 74%
Google 13%
OpenAI 5.5%
Meta 1.7%
$598,501 Vol.
$598,501 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Anthropic
$142,404 Vol.
74%
$55,722 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$25,644 Vol.
6%
Meta
$13,337 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$63,987 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$103,522 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$18,348 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$39,369 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$27,600 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$29,737 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$33,041 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$8,032 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$13,009 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$12,137 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$12,613 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by April 30, driven by its recent Claude Opus 4.7 release around April 16, which propelled variants to the top of the lmarena.ai Arena leaderboard—#1 (Opus 4.7 Thinking, 1505 Elo), #3 (Opus 4.7, 1503 Elo), and #4. This aggressive iteration on large language model capabilities outpaces rivals amid crowdsourced battles measuring real-world performance. Google's Gemini-3.1-Pro holds #2 at 1505 Elo (13% odds), bolstered by early April Gemma 4 open models, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high trails at #6 (1495 Elo, 5.5% odds). With 11 days to resolution, traders eye potential Gemini or GPT updates as catalysts for shifts, though Anthropic's momentum signals strong consensus for a podium finish.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volume
$598,501End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by April 30, driven by its recent Claude Opus 4.7 release around April 16, which propelled variants to the top of the lmarena.ai Arena leaderboard—#1 (Opus 4.7 Thinking, 1505 Elo), #3 (Opus 4.7, 1503 Elo), and #4. This aggressive iteration on large language model capabilities outpaces rivals amid crowdsourced battles measuring real-world performance. Google's Gemini-3.1-Pro holds #2 at 1505 Elo (13% odds), bolstered by early April Gemma 4 open models, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high trails at #6 (1495 Elo, 5.5% odds). With 11 days to resolution, traders eye potential Gemini or GPT updates as catalysts for shifts, though Anthropic's momentum signals strong consensus for a podium finish.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$598,501End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 74% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by April 30, driven by its recent Claude Opus 4.7 release around April 16, which propelled variants to the top of the lmarena.ai Arena leaderboard—#1 (Opus 4.7 Thinking, 1505 Elo), #3 (Opus 4.7, 1503 Elo), and #4. This aggressive iteration on large language model capabilities outpaces rivals amid crowdsourced battles measuring real-world performance. Google's Gemini-3.1-Pro holds #2 at 1505 Elo (13% odds), bolstered by early April Gemma 4 open models, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high trails at #6 (1495 Elo, 5.5% odds). With 11 days to resolution, traders eye potential Gemini or GPT updates as catalysts for shifts, though Anthropic's momentum signals strong consensus for a podium finish.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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