Market icon
Tech·OpenAI

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Market icon
Tech·OpenAI

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Anthropic 46%

Google 23%

OpenAI 12%

xAI 7%

Polymarket

$182,773 Vol.

Anthropic 46%

Google 23%

OpenAI 12%

xAI 7%

Polymarket

$182,773 Vol.

Market icon

Anthropic

$16,264 Vol.

49%

Market icon

Google

$8,692 Vol.

23%

Market icon

OpenAI

$42,705 Vol.

12%

Market icon

xAI

$0 Vol.

7%

Market icon

Mistral

$0 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Moonshot

$0 Vol.

2%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$0 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Meituan

$115,112 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Z.ai

$0 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Alibaba

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 48.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged #1 ranking since its February 5 release, excelling in substance over stylistic flair like verbosity. This edge stems from superior coding, planning, and reasoning benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid iteration. Google trails at 22.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro upgrades and anticipated I/O announcements May 19-20, while OpenAI's 12% reflects GPT-5.1 deprecation without fresh frontier pushes; xAI's 7% nods to Grok 4.20's recent low-hallucination gains. Key swings hinge on pre-June model drops and leaderboard battles.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 48.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged #1 ranking since its February 5 release, excelling in substance over stylistic flair like verbosity. This edge stems from superior coding, planning, and reasoning benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid iteration. Google trails at 22.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro upgrades and anticipated I/O announcements May 19-20, while OpenAI's 12% reflects GPT-5.1 deprecation without fresh frontier pushes; xAI's 7% nods to Grok 4.20's recent low-hallucination gains. Key swings hinge on pre-June model drops and leaderboard battles.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 48.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged #1 ranking since its February 5 release, excelling in substance over stylistic flair like verbosity. This edge stems from superior coding, planning, and reasoning benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid iteration. Google trails at 22.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro upgrades and anticipated I/O announcements May 19-20, while OpenAI's 12% reflects GPT-5.1 deprecation without fresh frontier pushes; xAI's 7% nods to Grok 4.20's recent low-hallucination gains. Key swings hinge on pre-June model drops and leaderboard battles.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 48.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, per the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged #1 ranking since its February 5 release, excelling in substance over stylistic flair like verbosity. This edge stems from superior coding, planning, and reasoning benchmarks, outpacing rivals amid rapid iteration. Google trails at 22.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro upgrades and anticipated I/O announcements May 19-20, while OpenAI's 12% reflects GPT-5.1 deprecation without fresh frontier pushes; xAI's 7% nods to Grok 4.20's recent low-hallucination gains. Key swings hinge on pre-June model drops and leaderboard battles.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

28%
Market icon

Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

44%
Market icon

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

96%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 49%, followed by "Google" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)" has generated $182.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)" is "Anthropic" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.