Traders assign a 99% probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, because the AI lab’s earliest credible listing window remains October 2026 or later in Q4. Recent private funding rounds underscore the preference for staying private: a $30 billion Series G closed in February at a $380 billion valuation, followed by a $65 billion Series H in late May that lifted the post-money valuation to $965 billion and pushed annualized revenue run-rate above $47 billion. No S-1 filing has been submitted, and executives continue to prioritize compute-scale partnerships with Amazon and Google alongside internal model development. An IPO this close would require an abrupt acceleration of regulatory, accounting, and roadshow timelines that have not materialized. The only realistic path to an earlier close would be an unforeseen strategic pivot or regulatory catalyst that compresses the standard six-to-nine-month public-company preparation process, an outcome markets currently price as remote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于截至2026年6月30日尚未上市 99.0%
6000亿美元及以上 <1%
2000亿美元–3000亿美元 <1%
3000–4000亿美元 <1%
$1,421,341 交易量
$1,421,341 交易量
<100B
<1%
1000–2000亿美元
<1%
2000亿美元–3000亿美元
<1%
3000–4000亿美元
<1%
4000–6000亿美元
<1%
6000亿美元及以上
1%
截至2026年6月30日尚未上市
99%
截至2026年6月30日尚未上市 99.0%
6000亿美元及以上 <1%
2000亿美元–3000亿美元 <1%
3000–4000亿美元 <1%
$1,421,341 交易量
$1,421,341 交易量
<100B
<1%
1000–2000亿美元
<1%
2000亿美元–3000亿美元
<1%
3000–4000亿美元
<1%
4000–6000亿美元
<1%
6000亿美元及以上
1%
截至2026年6月30日尚未上市
99%
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign a 99% probability to no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026, because the AI lab’s earliest credible listing window remains October 2026 or later in Q4. Recent private funding rounds underscore the preference for staying private: a $30 billion Series G closed in February at a $380 billion valuation, followed by a $65 billion Series H in late May that lifted the post-money valuation to $965 billion and pushed annualized revenue run-rate above $47 billion. No S-1 filing has been submitted, and executives continue to prioritize compute-scale partnerships with Amazon and Google alongside internal model development. An IPO this close would require an abrupt acceleration of regulatory, accounting, and roadshow timelines that have not materialized. The only realistic path to an earlier close would be an unforeseen strategic pivot or regulatory catalyst that compresses the standard six-to-nine-month public-company preparation process, an outcome markets currently price as remote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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