Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense uncertainty around OpenAI's next large language model release, with mid-April dates like April 18 (47%) and several others at 46.5% implying a narrow window driven by recent Axios reporting on April 9 about a staggered rollout of an advanced cybersecurity-capable model—codenamed "Spud" and possibly GPT-5.5—to select companies only, echoing Anthropic's limited Claude 5 Mythos debut amid misuse fears. This tempers optimism from leaks of completed pretraining, Sam Altman's March 24 "few weeks" timeline, and OpenAI's monthly cadence since GPT-5's August 2025 launch through GPT-5.4. Competitive pressure from rivals like DeepSeek-V4 accelerates urgency, but public availability, exact versioning, and benchmarks remain key swing factors as pricing tweaks signal imminent announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 14 94%
April 10 79%
April 16 48%
April 12 47%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 10
79%
April 11
43%
April 12
47%
April 13
47%
April 14
94%
April 15
43%
April 16
48%
April 17
45%
April 18
47%
April 19
45%
April 20
44%
April 21
47%
April 22
47%
April 23
47%
April 24
47%
April 25
43%
April 26
46%
April 27
42%
April 28
43%
April 29
47%
April 30
47%
No release by April 30
47%
April 14 94%
April 10 79%
April 16 48%
April 12 47%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 10
$19 Vol.
79%
April 11
$0 Vol.
43%
April 12
$0 Vol.
47%
April 13
$0 Vol.
47%
April 14
$5 Vol.
94%
April 15
$0 Vol.
43%
April 16
$0 Vol.
48%
April 17
$0 Vol.
45%
April 18
$0 Vol.
47%
April 19
$0 Vol.
45%
April 20
$0 Vol.
44%
April 21
$0 Vol.
47%
April 22
$0 Vol.
47%
April 23
$0 Vol.
47%
April 24
$0 Vol.
47%
April 25
$0 Vol.
43%
April 26
$0 Vol.
46%
April 27
$0 Vol.
42%
April 28
$0 Vol.
43%
April 29
$0 Vol.
47%
April 30
$0 Vol.
47%
No release by April 30
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense uncertainty around OpenAI's next large language model release, with mid-April dates like April 18 (47%) and several others at 46.5% implying a narrow window driven by recent Axios reporting on April 9 about a staggered rollout of an advanced cybersecurity-capable model—codenamed "Spud" and possibly GPT-5.5—to select companies only, echoing Anthropic's limited Claude 5 Mythos debut amid misuse fears. This tempers optimism from leaks of completed pretraining, Sam Altman's March 24 "few weeks" timeline, and OpenAI's monthly cadence since GPT-5's August 2025 launch through GPT-5.4. Competitive pressure from rivals like DeepSeek-V4 accelerates urgency, but public availability, exact versioning, and benchmarks remain key swing factors as pricing tweaks signal imminent announcements.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,156End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense uncertainty around OpenAI's next large language model release, with mid-April dates like April 18 (47%) and several others at 46.5% implying a narrow window driven by recent Axios reporting on April 9 about a staggered rollout of an advanced cybersecurity-capable model—codenamed "Spud" and possibly GPT-5.5—to select companies only, echoing Anthropic's limited Claude 5 Mythos debut amid misuse fears. This tempers optimism from leaks of completed pretraining, Sam Altman's March 24 "few weeks" timeline, and OpenAI's monthly cadence since GPT-5's August 2025 launch through GPT-5.4. Competitive pressure from rivals like DeepSeek-V4 accelerates urgency, but public availability, exact versioning, and benchmarks remain key swing factors as pricing tweaks signal imminent announcements.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,156End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense uncertainty around OpenAI's next large language model release, with mid-April dates like April 18 (47%) and several others at 46.5% implying a narrow window driven by recent Axios reporting on April 9 about a staggered rollout of an advanced cybersecurity-capable model—codenamed "Spud" and possibly GPT-5.5—to select companies only, echoing Anthropic's limited Claude 5 Mythos debut amid misuse fears. This tempers optimism from leaks of completed pretraining, Sam Altman's March 24 "few weeks" timeline, and OpenAI's monthly cadence since GPT-5's August 2025 launch through GPT-5.4. Competitive pressure from rivals like DeepSeek-V4 accelerates urgency, but public availability, exact versioning, and benchmarks remain key swing factors as pricing tweaks signal imminent announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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