OpenAI's official announcement and rollout of GPT-5.5 today—detailed in a blog post and confirmed via posts from CEO Sam Altman and the company account—has driven trader consensus to 100% implied probability for an April 23 release, as the large language model is now available to paid ChatGPT and Codex subscribers, excelling in agentic coding, research, and tool use with efficiency gains over GPT-5.4. This rapid iteration, just seven weeks after the prior model, underscores OpenAI's accelerated development pace amid competition from Anthropic's Claude. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect near-certainty on confirmed deployment, edge cases like disputes over exact rollout timing or resolution criteria could theoretically challenge it, though such risks appear negligible given the public availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 23 100.0%
Prio to or on April 8 <1%
April 9 <1%
April 10 <1%
$1,556,759 Vol.
$1,556,759 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Prio to or on April 8
No
April 9
No
April 10
No
April 11
No
April 12
No
April 13
No
April 14
No
April 15
No
April 16
No
April 17
No
April 18
No
April 19
No
April 20
No
April 21
No
April 22
No
April 23
Yes
April 24
No
April 25
No
April 26
No
April 27
No
April 28
No
April 29
No
April 30
No
No release by April 30
No
April 23 100.0%
Prio to or on April 8 <1%
April 9 <1%
April 10 <1%
$1,556,759 Vol.
$1,556,759 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Prio to or on April 8
$2,103 Vol.
No
April 9
$29 Vol.
No
April 10
$125 Vol.
No
April 11
$132 Vol.
No
April 12
$230 Vol.
No
April 13
$305 Vol.
No
April 14
$1,920 Vol.
No
April 15
$2,338 Vol.
No
April 16
$52,118 Vol.
No
April 17
$3,969 Vol.
No
April 18
$2,130 Vol.
No
April 19
$3,448 Vol.
No
April 20
$5,443 Vol.
No
April 21
$108,215 Vol.
No
April 22
$92,761 Vol.
No
April 23
$767,432 Vol.
Yes
April 24
$70,565 Vol.
No
April 25
$28,574 Vol.
No
April 26
$26,130 Vol.
No
April 27
$27,525 Vol.
No
April 28
$50,569 Vol.
No
April 29
$43,978 Vol.
No
April 30
$71,569 Vol.
No
No release by April 30
$195,151 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's official announcement and rollout of GPT-5.5 today—detailed in a blog post and confirmed via posts from CEO Sam Altman and the company account—has driven trader consensus to 100% implied probability for an April 23 release, as the large language model is now available to paid ChatGPT and Codex subscribers, excelling in agentic coding, research, and tool use with efficiency gains over GPT-5.4. This rapid iteration, just seven weeks after the prior model, underscores OpenAI's accelerated development pace amid competition from Anthropic's Claude. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect near-certainty on confirmed deployment, edge cases like disputes over exact rollout timing or resolution criteria could theoretically challenge it, though such risks appear negligible given the public availability.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Volume
$1,556,759End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's official announcement and rollout of GPT-5.5 today—detailed in a blog post and confirmed via posts from CEO Sam Altman and the company account—has driven trader consensus to 100% implied probability for an April 23 release, as the large language model is now available to paid ChatGPT and Codex subscribers, excelling in agentic coding, research, and tool use with efficiency gains over GPT-5.4. This rapid iteration, just seven weeks after the prior model, underscores OpenAI's accelerated development pace amid competition from Anthropic's Claude. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect near-certainty on confirmed deployment, edge cases like disputes over exact rollout timing or resolution criteria could theoretically challenge it, though such risks appear negligible given the public availability.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,556,759End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
OpenAI's official announcement and rollout of GPT-5.5 today—detailed in a blog post and confirmed via posts from CEO Sam Altman and the company account—has driven trader consensus to 100% implied probability for an April 23 release, as the large language model is now available to paid ChatGPT and Codex subscribers, excelling in agentic coding, research, and tool use with efficiency gains over GPT-5.4. This rapid iteration, just seven weeks after the prior model, underscores OpenAI's accelerated development pace amid competition from Anthropic's Claude. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect near-certainty on confirmed deployment, edge cases like disputes over exact rollout timing or resolution criteria could theoretically challenge it, though such risks appear negligible given the public availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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