Moonshot AI, the Chinese startup behind the Kimi large language model series, drives trader consensus for releasing Kimi K3 following its April 2026 launch of K2.6—an open-source, 1-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts model topping benchmarks in long-horizon coding, agent swarms, and multilingual tasks like SWE-Bench (58.6%) and Toolathlon (50%). Recent reports confirm K3 development, targeting a Q3 2026 debut with 2.5 trillion parameters amid a $500 million Series C funding round in January to expand compute capacity. In China's intensifying AI race against DeepSeek, Qwen, and GLM, Moonshot's rapid iteration cadence—five Kimi versions in two years—bolsters expectations, though hardware constraints on 1M-token contexts persist. Watch for Q2 announcements or previews that could accelerate timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$38,010 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30
22%
May 31
19%
$38,010 Vol.
June 30
$3,044 Vol.
22%
May 31
$1,564 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI, the Chinese startup behind the Kimi large language model series, drives trader consensus for releasing Kimi K3 following its April 2026 launch of K2.6—an open-source, 1-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts model topping benchmarks in long-horizon coding, agent swarms, and multilingual tasks like SWE-Bench (58.6%) and Toolathlon (50%). Recent reports confirm K3 development, targeting a Q3 2026 debut with 2.5 trillion parameters amid a $500 million Series C funding round in January to expand compute capacity. In China's intensifying AI race against DeepSeek, Qwen, and GLM, Moonshot's rapid iteration cadence—five Kimi versions in two years—bolsters expectations, though hardware constraints on 1M-token contexts persist. Watch for Q2 announcements or previews that could accelerate timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Volume
$38,010End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI, the Chinese startup behind the Kimi large language model series, drives trader consensus for releasing Kimi K3 following its April 2026 launch of K2.6—an open-source, 1-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts model topping benchmarks in long-horizon coding, agent swarms, and multilingual tasks like SWE-Bench (58.6%) and Toolathlon (50%). Recent reports confirm K3 development, targeting a Q3 2026 debut with 2.5 trillion parameters amid a $500 million Series C funding round in January to expand compute capacity. In China's intensifying AI race against DeepSeek, Qwen, and GLM, Moonshot's rapid iteration cadence—five Kimi versions in two years—bolsters expectations, though hardware constraints on 1M-token contexts persist. Watch for Q2 announcements or previews that could accelerate timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$38,010End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI, the Chinese startup behind the Kimi large language model series, drives trader consensus for releasing Kimi K3 following its April 2026 launch of K2.6—an open-source, 1-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts model topping benchmarks in long-horizon coding, agent swarms, and multilingual tasks like SWE-Bench (58.6%) and Toolathlon (50%). Recent reports confirm K3 development, targeting a Q3 2026 debut with 2.5 trillion parameters amid a $500 million Series C funding round in January to expand compute capacity. In China's intensifying AI race against DeepSeek, Qwen, and GLM, Moonshot's rapid iteration cadence—five Kimi versions in two years—bolsters expectations, though hardware constraints on 1M-token contexts persist. Watch for Q2 announcements or previews that could accelerate timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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