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Tech·Claude 5

Anthropic Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Market icon
Tech·Claude 5

Anthropic Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

$187,331 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$187,331 Vol.

Polymarket

35%+

$66,554 Vol.

93%

45%+

$75,998 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, leads trader consensus with low single-digit scores on Humanity’s Last Exam—a rigorous benchmark of 1,000+ expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities designed by the Center for AI Safety to probe frontier AI capabilities toward AGI. Current public evaluations show Claude 3.5 Sonnet at around 4-5%, trailing OpenAI's o1-preview (8.2%), reflecting the exam's extreme difficulty where no large language model exceeds 10%. With the June 30 deadline days away, no new Claude iteration has been announced, dampening odds for a breakthrough; traders eye potential last-minute evaluations or unreported internal progress, though historical benchmark timelines suggest limited upside absent a surprise model drop. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google intensifies focus on reasoning advancements.

Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, leads trader consensus with low single-digit scores on Humanity’s Last Exam—a rigorous benchmark of 1,000+ expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities designed by the Center for AI Safety to probe frontier AI capabilities toward AGI. Current public evaluations show Claude 3.5 Sonnet at around 4-5%, trailing OpenAI's o1-preview (8.2%), reflecting the exam's extreme difficulty where no large language model exceeds 10%. With the June 30 deadline days away, no new Claude iteration has been announced, dampening odds for a breakthrough; traders eye potential last-minute evaluations or unreported internal progress, though historical benchmark timelines suggest limited upside absent a surprise model drop. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google intensifies focus on reasoning advancements.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, leads trader consensus with low single-digit scores on Humanity’s Last Exam—a rigorous benchmark of 1,000+ expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities designed by the Center for AI Safety to probe frontier AI capabilities toward AGI. Current public evaluations show Claude 3.5 Sonnet at around 4-5%, trailing OpenAI's o1-preview (8.2%), reflecting the exam's extreme difficulty where no large language model exceeds 10%. With the June 30 deadline days away, no new Claude iteration has been announced, dampening odds for a breakthrough; traders eye potential last-minute evaluations or unreported internal progress, though historical benchmark timelines suggest limited upside absent a surprise model drop. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google intensifies focus on reasoning advancements.

Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, leads trader consensus with low single-digit scores on Humanity’s Last Exam—a rigorous benchmark of 1,000+ expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities designed by the Center for AI Safety to probe frontier AI capabilities toward AGI. Current public evaluations show Claude 3.5 Sonnet at around 4-5%, trailing OpenAI's o1-preview (8.2%), reflecting the exam's extreme difficulty where no large language model exceeds 10%. With the June 30 deadline days away, no new Claude iteration has been announced, dampening odds for a breakthrough; traders eye potential last-minute evaluations or unreported internal progress, though historical benchmark timelines suggest limited upside absent a surprise model drop. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google intensifies focus on reasoning advancements.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Anthropic Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30%+" at 100%, followed by "35%+" at 93%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Anthropic Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" has generated $187.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Anthropic Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Anthropic Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" is "30%+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "35%+" at 93%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Anthropic Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.