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Tech·Claude 5

Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Market icon
Tech·Claude 5

Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

$59,286 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$59,286 Vol.

Polymarket

50%+

$12,252 Vol.

37%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Anthropic's April 16, 2026, launch of Claude Opus 4.7—boasting top scores like 64.3% on SWE-bench Pro, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4—alongside the April 8 Claude Mythos Preview system card, signals accelerating mathematical reasoning capabilities critical for the FrontierMath benchmark. This expert-curated evaluation of undergraduate-to-research-level problems saw Claude Opus 4.6 tie GPT-5.2 at 40% on Tiers 1-3 (full benchmark ~40.7%), up from Opus 4.5's 21%, while GPT-5.4 leads overall at 47.6%. Traders weigh Anthropic's blistering release cadence and internal progress against OpenAI dominance, with official Epoch AI leaderboard updates and potential Mythos rollout before June 30 as pivotal catalysts amid AI safety and compute scaling uncertainties.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$59,286
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Anthropic's April 16, 2026, launch of Claude Opus 4.7—boasting top scores like 64.3% on SWE-bench Pro, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.4—alongside the April 8 Claude Mythos Preview system card, signals accelerating mathematical reasoning capabilities critical for the FrontierMath benchmark. This expert-curated evaluation of undergraduate-to-research-level problems saw Claude Opus 4.6 tie GPT-5.2 at 40% on Tiers 1-3 (full benchmark ~40.7%), up from Opus 4.5's 21%, while GPT-5.4 leads overall at 47.6%. Traders weigh Anthropic's blistering release cadence and internal progress against OpenAI dominance, with official Epoch AI leaderboard updates and potential Mythos rollout before June 30 as pivotal catalysts amid AI safety and compute scaling uncertainties.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$59,286
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25%+" at 100%, followed by "30%+" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" has generated $59.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" is "25%+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30%+" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.