Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition between a 750B–1T IPO closing market cap (31.5% implied probability) and no IPO by December 31, 2027 (30.5%), driven by OpenAI's recent $110 billion funding round at an $840 billion post-money valuation in late February 2026, alongside $25 billion annualized revenue surpassing prior forecasts. Massive compute spending projections—potentially $600 billion through 2030—and enterprise erosion to rivals like Anthropic have fueled valuation skepticism, despite SoftBank's fresh $40 billion loan signaling IPO groundwork for late 2026. Key swing factors include regulatory filings, model leadership in the AI arms race, and public market tolerance for OpenAI's high burn rate versus revenue growth trajectory, with Q4 2026 as a pivotal catalyst window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo IPO by December 31, 2027 31%
1.5T+ 27%
1T–1.25T 25%
500–750B 20%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
7%
500–750B
20%
750B–1T
32%
1T–1.25T
25%
1.25T–1.5T
16%
1.5T+
27%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
31%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 31%
1.5T+ 27%
1T–1.25T 25%
500–750B 20%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$0 Vol.
7%
500–750B
$0 Vol.
20%
750B–1T
$37 Vol.
32%
1T–1.25T
$2,790 Vol.
25%
1.25T–1.5T
$105 Vol.
16%
1.5T+
$0 Vol.
27%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$0 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition between a 750B–1T IPO closing market cap (31.5% implied probability) and no IPO by December 31, 2027 (30.5%), driven by OpenAI's recent $110 billion funding round at an $840 billion post-money valuation in late February 2026, alongside $25 billion annualized revenue surpassing prior forecasts. Massive compute spending projections—potentially $600 billion through 2030—and enterprise erosion to rivals like Anthropic have fueled valuation skepticism, despite SoftBank's fresh $40 billion loan signaling IPO groundwork for late 2026. Key swing factors include regulatory filings, model leadership in the AI arms race, and public market tolerance for OpenAI's high burn rate versus revenue growth trajectory, with Q4 2026 as a pivotal catalyst window.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$2,932End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition between a 750B–1T IPO closing market cap (31.5% implied probability) and no IPO by December 31, 2027 (30.5%), driven by OpenAI's recent $110 billion funding round at an $840 billion post-money valuation in late February 2026, alongside $25 billion annualized revenue surpassing prior forecasts. Massive compute spending projections—potentially $600 billion through 2030—and enterprise erosion to rivals like Anthropic have fueled valuation skepticism, despite SoftBank's fresh $40 billion loan signaling IPO groundwork for late 2026. Key swing factors include regulatory filings, model leadership in the AI arms race, and public market tolerance for OpenAI's high burn rate versus revenue growth trajectory, with Q4 2026 as a pivotal catalyst window.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$2,932End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition between a 750B–1T IPO closing market cap (31.5% implied probability) and no IPO by December 31, 2027 (30.5%), driven by OpenAI's recent $110 billion funding round at an $840 billion post-money valuation in late February 2026, alongside $25 billion annualized revenue surpassing prior forecasts. Massive compute spending projections—potentially $600 billion through 2030—and enterprise erosion to rivals like Anthropic have fueled valuation skepticism, despite SoftBank's fresh $40 billion loan signaling IPO groundwork for late 2026. Key swing factors include regulatory filings, model leadership in the AI arms race, and public market tolerance for OpenAI's high burn rate versus revenue growth trajectory, with Q4 2026 as a pivotal catalyst window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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