Polymarket traders price a $750 billion–$1 trillion IPO market cap for OpenAI as the consensus outcome at 37% implied probability, narrowly ahead of "No IPO by December 31, 2027" at 30%, reflecting balanced sentiment on the AI leader's growth trajectory versus public listing hurdles. Recent funding talks valuing the firm at over $150 billion post-money—driven by projected 2025 revenue exceeding $11 billion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise deals—bolster high-valuation bins, yet Sam Altman's reluctance for an imminent IPO, ongoing nonprofit-to-for-profit restructuring, and Elon Musk's lawsuit alleging mission drift temper expectations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, plus regulatory scrutiny on Microsoft ties, keep lower-cap and no-IPO outcomes viable; watch Q4 2024 funding close and 2025 model launches for sentiment shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated750B–1T 37%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 30%
1.5T+ 27%
500–750B 20%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
7%
500–750B
20%
750B–1T
37%
1T–1.25T
17%
1.25T–1.5T
16%
1.5T+
27%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
30%
750B–1T 37%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 30%
1.5T+ 27%
500–750B 20%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$0 Vol.
7%
500–750B
$0 Vol.
20%
750B–1T
$0 Vol.
37%
1T–1.25T
$0 Vol.
17%
1.25T–1.5T
$105 Vol.
16%
1.5T+
$0 Vol.
27%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$0 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price a $750 billion–$1 trillion IPO market cap for OpenAI as the consensus outcome at 37% implied probability, narrowly ahead of "No IPO by December 31, 2027" at 30%, reflecting balanced sentiment on the AI leader's growth trajectory versus public listing hurdles. Recent funding talks valuing the firm at over $150 billion post-money—driven by projected 2025 revenue exceeding $11 billion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise deals—bolster high-valuation bins, yet Sam Altman's reluctance for an imminent IPO, ongoing nonprofit-to-for-profit restructuring, and Elon Musk's lawsuit alleging mission drift temper expectations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, plus regulatory scrutiny on Microsoft ties, keep lower-cap and no-IPO outcomes viable; watch Q4 2024 funding close and 2025 model launches for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$105End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price a $750 billion–$1 trillion IPO market cap for OpenAI as the consensus outcome at 37% implied probability, narrowly ahead of "No IPO by December 31, 2027" at 30%, reflecting balanced sentiment on the AI leader's growth trajectory versus public listing hurdles. Recent funding talks valuing the firm at over $150 billion post-money—driven by projected 2025 revenue exceeding $11 billion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise deals—bolster high-valuation bins, yet Sam Altman's reluctance for an imminent IPO, ongoing nonprofit-to-for-profit restructuring, and Elon Musk's lawsuit alleging mission drift temper expectations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, plus regulatory scrutiny on Microsoft ties, keep lower-cap and no-IPO outcomes viable; watch Q4 2024 funding close and 2025 model launches for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$105End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a $750 billion–$1 trillion IPO market cap for OpenAI as the consensus outcome at 37% implied probability, narrowly ahead of "No IPO by December 31, 2027" at 30%, reflecting balanced sentiment on the AI leader's growth trajectory versus public listing hurdles. Recent funding talks valuing the firm at over $150 billion post-money—driven by projected 2025 revenue exceeding $11 billion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise deals—bolster high-valuation bins, yet Sam Altman's reluctance for an imminent IPO, ongoing nonprofit-to-for-profit restructuring, and Elon Musk's lawsuit alleging mission drift temper expectations. Competitive pressures from Anthropic and xAI, plus regulatory scrutiny on Microsoft ties, keep lower-cap and no-IPO outcomes viable; watch Q4 2024 funding close and 2025 model launches for sentiment shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions