Trader consensus heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30 (83.8% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcements as of early May 2026, following the company's February $5 billion equity raise at a $134 billion private valuation and January's $1.8 billion debt financing. These moves provide substantial runway for the data lakehouse and AI platform leader amid a cautious tech IPO market, reducing urgency for public listing despite strong growth in annual recurring revenue exceeding $5 billion. Lower odds on market cap ranges reflect timeline uncertainty, with 100–125B (6%) slightly ahead due to potential IPO discounts; watch for Q3 S-1 filings or regulatory progress that could shift sentiment rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 83.2%
100–125B 5.0%
125–150B 2.2%
200–250B 1.4%
$401,670 Vol.
$401,670 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
1%
100–125B
5%
125–150B
2%
150–175B
<1%
175–200B
1%
200–250B
1%
250B+
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
83%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 83.2%
100–125B 5.0%
125–150B 2.2%
200–250B 1.4%
$401,670 Vol.
$401,670 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$33,157 Vol.
1%
100–125B
$61,633 Vol.
5%
125–150B
$26,393 Vol.
2%
150–175B
$59,731 Vol.
<1%
175–200B
$58,101 Vol.
1%
200–250B
$21,098 Vol.
1%
250B+
$125,930 Vol.
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$15,626 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30 (83.8% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcements as of early May 2026, following the company's February $5 billion equity raise at a $134 billion private valuation and January's $1.8 billion debt financing. These moves provide substantial runway for the data lakehouse and AI platform leader amid a cautious tech IPO market, reducing urgency for public listing despite strong growth in annual recurring revenue exceeding $5 billion. Lower odds on market cap ranges reflect timeline uncertainty, with 100–125B (6%) slightly ahead due to potential IPO discounts; watch for Q3 S-1 filings or regulatory progress that could shift sentiment rapidly.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$401,670End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30 (83.8% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcements as of early May 2026, following the company's February $5 billion equity raise at a $134 billion private valuation and January's $1.8 billion debt financing. These moves provide substantial runway for the data lakehouse and AI platform leader amid a cautious tech IPO market, reducing urgency for public listing despite strong growth in annual recurring revenue exceeding $5 billion. Lower odds on market cap ranges reflect timeline uncertainty, with 100–125B (6%) slightly ahead due to potential IPO discounts; watch for Q3 S-1 filings or regulatory progress that could shift sentiment rapidly.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$401,670End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors no Databricks IPO by June 30 (83.8% implied probability), driven by the absence of any S-1 filing or official announcements as of early May 2026, following the company's February $5 billion equity raise at a $134 billion private valuation and January's $1.8 billion debt financing. These moves provide substantial runway for the data lakehouse and AI platform leader amid a cautious tech IPO market, reducing urgency for public listing despite strong growth in annual recurring revenue exceeding $5 billion. Lower odds on market cap ranges reflect timeline uncertainty, with 100–125B (6%) slightly ahead due to potential IPO discounts; watch for Q3 S-1 filings or regulatory progress that could shift sentiment rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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