Polymarket traders derive implied probabilities for Natural Gas (NG) prices in April 2026 from the CME Henry Hub futures curve, where the April contract settles near $3.95/MMBtu—up from spot levels around $2.20/MMBtu—betting on a supply-demand rebalance. Surging U.S. LNG exports exceeding 14 Bcf/d and rising power burn from data centers counter record production above 105 Bcf/d and stockpiles 7% above five-year averages, per latest EIA data. Mild weather has capped near-term gains, but trader consensus eyes tighter global balances amid European restocking. Watch Thursday's EIA storage report and November winter outlook for curve shifts; resolution pivots on $4.00 thresholds tied to export ramps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated↑ $4.20
100%
↑ $4.00
100%
↑ $3.80
100%
↑ $3.60
100%
↑ $3.40
100%
↑ $3.20
100%
↑ $3.00
100%
↓ $2.80
100%
↓ $2.60
100%
↓ $2.40
100%
↓ $2.20
100%
↓ $2.00
100%
↓ $1.80
51%
↓ $1.60
100%
$0.00 Vol.
↑ $4.20
100%
↑ $4.00
100%
↑ $3.80
100%
↑ $3.60
100%
↑ $3.40
100%
↑ $3.20
100%
↑ $3.00
100%
↓ $2.80
100%
↓ $2.60
100%
↓ $2.40
100%
↓ $2.20
100%
↓ $2.00
100%
↓ $1.80
51%
↓ $1.60
100%
For Natural Gas futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. The active month changes at 6:00:00 PM ET at the start of the trading session two business days prior to that contract's last trading day, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month.
For Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as four business days prior to the first calendar day of the contract's delivery month, consistent with CME contract specifications.
Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session for the underlying market will be considered. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month Natural Gas futures "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.NGDM6%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published for the Active Month Natural Gas (NG) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.NGDM6%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Commodities.NGDM6%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders derive implied probabilities for Natural Gas (NG) prices in April 2026 from the CME Henry Hub futures curve, where the April contract settles near $3.95/MMBtu—up from spot levels around $2.20/MMBtu—betting on a supply-demand rebalance. Surging U.S. LNG exports exceeding 14 Bcf/d and rising power burn from data centers counter record production above 105 Bcf/d and stockpiles 7% above five-year averages, per latest EIA data. Mild weather has capped near-term gains, but trader consensus eyes tighter global balances amid European restocking. Watch Thursday's EIA storage report and November winter outlook for curve shifts; resolution pivots on $4.00 thresholds tied to export ramps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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