Polymarket traders price gold (GC) futures above $2,600/oz by June 30 at around 60% implied probability, propelled by persistent Fed rate cut expectations amid softening U.S. inflation and labor data. Spot gold holds near $2,650/oz after a 17% YTD rally, bolstered by central bank buying (483 tonnes in Q1 per World Gold Council) and Middle East tensions weakening the USD index to 104.5. Yet, hawkish FOMC signals could reverse sentiment; key catalysts include June 12 CPI (forecast 3.4% YoY) and June 11-12 FOMC meeting, where 70bps cuts are now priced in by year-end per CME FedWatch Tool, underscoring gold's sensitivity to real yields.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?
$2,246,428 Vol.
↑ $10,000
2%
↑ $8,500
3%
↑ $9,000
3%
↑ $8,000
4%
↑ $7,000
4%
↑ $6,500
7%
↑ $6,200
10%
↑ $6,000
12%
↑ $5,700
16%
↑ $5,500
30%
↓ $4,200
54%
↓ $3,800
25%
↓ $3,400
13%
$2,246,428 Vol.
↑ $10,000
2%
↑ $8,500
3%
↑ $9,000
3%
↑ $8,000
4%
↑ $7,000
4%
↑ $6,500
7%
↑ $6,200
10%
↑ $6,000
12%
↑ $5,700
16%
↑ $5,500
30%
↓ $4,200
54%
↓ $3,800
25%
↓ $3,400
13%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price gold (GC) futures above $2,600/oz by June 30 at around 60% implied probability, propelled by persistent Fed rate cut expectations amid softening U.S. inflation and labor data. Spot gold holds near $2,650/oz after a 17% YTD rally, bolstered by central bank buying (483 tonnes in Q1 per World Gold Council) and Middle East tensions weakening the USD index to 104.5. Yet, hawkish FOMC signals could reverse sentiment; key catalysts include June 12 CPI (forecast 3.4% YoY) and June 11-12 FOMC meeting, where 70bps cuts are now priced in by year-end per CME FedWatch Tool, underscoring gold's sensitivity to real yields.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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