xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Name: xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
Start: 2026-01-30T05:05:27.871Z
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Tech·AI

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

NEW

Feb 28, 2026

25%+

$0 Vol.

77%

30%+

$0 Vol.

74%

40%+

$0 Vol.

59%

50%+

$0 Vol.

27%

$0.00 Vol.

25%+

$0 Vol.

77%

30%+

$0 Vol.

74%

40%+

$0 Vol.

59%

50%+

$0 Vol.

27%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trader sentiment on xAI's Grok achieving a notable score on the FrontierMath benchmark—testing frontier models on 100 novel, PhD-level math problems—leans bearish due to the absence of any published Grok results despite low industry baselines, with OpenAI's o1-preview at just 10.4% and Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet at 1.9%. xAI's rapid scaling via the Colossus supercluster in Memphis positions Grok-3 for December training completion, potentially enabling competitive math prowess by June 30, but tight timelines and unverified leaks fuel doubt. Watch for Grok-2 evals or Elon Musk announcements at upcoming xAI updates, as benchmark submission lags model releases amid intensifying AI math race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 3:21 AM UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

"xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25%+" at 78%, followed by "30%+" at 74%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" is "25%+" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30%+" at 74%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 78¢ for "25%+" in the "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 78% chance that "25%+" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 78¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 22¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" market has a growing discussion of 2 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

xAI Grok score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

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Market Context

Market Context

Comments (2)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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