xAI's Grok models currently trail on the FrontierMath benchmark, with Grok 4 scoring around 14% overall and just 2% on the private Tier 4 set of unsolved research-level math problems, per Epoch AI evaluations—far behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leader at 47.6%. Recent xAI releases like Grok 4.20 and the April 2026 Grok 4.3 beta have dominated agentic benchmarks such as Humanity's Last Exam (50.7%) and SWE-Bench (75%), showcasing multi-agent reasoning and 2M-token context, but pure mathematical reasoning remains a relative weakness amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google. Traders eye a potential Grok 5 rollout by June—boasting 7 trillion parameters on the expanded Colossus cluster—as the key catalyst, though historical timelines and benchmark overfitting risks temper expectations for a FrontierMath breakthrough before quarter-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$19,331 Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
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$19,331 Vol.
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$3,678 Vol.
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$12,605 Vol.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models currently trail on the FrontierMath benchmark, with Grok 4 scoring around 14% overall and just 2% on the private Tier 4 set of unsolved research-level math problems, per Epoch AI evaluations—far behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leader at 47.6%. Recent xAI releases like Grok 4.20 and the April 2026 Grok 4.3 beta have dominated agentic benchmarks such as Humanity's Last Exam (50.7%) and SWE-Bench (75%), showcasing multi-agent reasoning and 2M-token context, but pure mathematical reasoning remains a relative weakness amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google. Traders eye a potential Grok 5 rollout by June—boasting 7 trillion parameters on the expanded Colossus cluster—as the key catalyst, though historical timelines and benchmark overfitting risks temper expectations for a FrontierMath breakthrough before quarter-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$19,331End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok models currently trail on the FrontierMath benchmark, with Grok 4 scoring around 14% overall and just 2% on the private Tier 4 set of unsolved research-level math problems, per Epoch AI evaluations—far behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leader at 47.6%. Recent xAI releases like Grok 4.20 and the April 2026 Grok 4.3 beta have dominated agentic benchmarks such as Humanity's Last Exam (50.7%) and SWE-Bench (75%), showcasing multi-agent reasoning and 2M-token context, but pure mathematical reasoning remains a relative weakness amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google. Traders eye a potential Grok 5 rollout by June—boasting 7 trillion parameters on the expanded Colossus cluster—as the key catalyst, though historical timelines and benchmark overfitting risks temper expectations for a FrontierMath breakthrough before quarter-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,331End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok models currently trail on the FrontierMath benchmark, with Grok 4 scoring around 14% overall and just 2% on the private Tier 4 set of unsolved research-level math problems, per Epoch AI evaluations—far behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4 leader at 47.6%. Recent xAI releases like Grok 4.20 and the April 2026 Grok 4.3 beta have dominated agentic benchmarks such as Humanity's Last Exam (50.7%) and SWE-Bench (75%), showcasing multi-agent reasoning and 2M-token context, but pure mathematical reasoning remains a relative weakness amid competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google. Traders eye a potential Grok 5 rollout by June—boasting 7 trillion parameters on the expanded Colossus cluster—as the key catalyst, though historical timelines and benchmark overfitting risks temper expectations for a FrontierMath breakthrough before quarter-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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